VOX rises 1% in Castile and León, but strategy divides voters

VOX rises 1% in Castile and León, but strategy divides voters

VOX has gained one seat and 1% of the vote in Spain's Castile and León. On paper, it looks like an advance. In practice, the result has chilled much of its own base, which expected more in a context where the PSOE is weakened and the PP presented a candidate without substance. The paradox is that Abascal's party has grown while shedding some of its most recognized leaders. And for many supporters, this is not a victory: it is an alarm signal.

The official result is clear: VOX has gained one seat and 1% of the vote. The PP has gained two seats and 4%. The PSOE has gained two seats. In a scenario where the central government's wear was the opposition's main argument, the party that capitalized most on that discontent was not VOX, but the PP. Critics argue that VOX has missed a political window that will not repeat with the same intensity.

The purge of heavyweights

The strategy that has attracted the most attention is the departure of figures like Juan García-Gallardo, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, Javier Ortega Smith, and Macarena Olona. García-Gallardo, who built a belligerent discourse on immigration, was sidelined. Espinosa de los Monteros, a liberal economist and considered by some participants in the debate one of the best-prepared politicians in Congress, was also removed. The question that looms is why a party sheds its most recognized profiles just when it needs them most.

Some argue that the departure of these figures responds to an internal control logic: eliminating any voice with charisma or independent discourse so that only the leader's remains. Others point to more prosaic reasons, such as personal feuds or social media likes. The fact is that the replacements have been handpicked and, according to critics, lack substance or independent discourse. The result, they say, is a party more obedient but less competitive.

The discourse that does not convince the base

Another hot spot is the discursive shift. According to some analyses, VOX has moved from a Catholic-traditionalist and liberal profile to orbit a national-syndicalism of the Le Pen type. The purge of liberals and Catholics has run parallel to the adoption of a discourse more focused on immigration as a security issue and on mass deportations. Abascal has announced he will deport 600,000 people, a figure that has not been detailed.

The problem, according to critics, is that this discourse is not resonating with the electorate it should mobilize. Some argue that VOX has become a version of the PP, more interested in Cuba, Venezuela, or Israel than in everyday problems. And that its real function is to channel discontent so it does not overflow the system, not to change it. The comparison with Ciudadanos appears again and again: a party that grew fast and deflated when it was no longer useful.

The electoral ceiling and the shadow of Alvise

The question many ask is whether VOX has hit a ceiling. Some argue that VOX was given around 20% and has settled at 19%, thus falling short of expectations. In an aging and traditional community like Castile and León, the margin for growth is limited. And the wear on the VOX brand among younger voters is starting to show.

The emergence of Alvise Pérez and his party, Se Acabó La Fiesta, is another factor. Some argue that VOX has lost votes to the right, toward a more aggressive and less institutional discourse. VOX's strategy of calling Alvise "paki" and laughing at the podemitas has not worked, according to some critics. And meanwhile, the PP continues to occupy the central space of the right without breaking a sweat.

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VOX's future depends on whether it can reconstruct a discourse that mobilizes its base without losing the center. The departure of its heavyweights has left a void that the replacements do not seem to fill. And the 1% growth does not compensate for the loss of human capital. With these threads, the basket does not seem very solid. We will have to see whether the party corrects course or, on the contrary, consolidates as a residual force in the political landscape.