Voting PP once to bring down Sánchez in Spain

Holding your nose to cast a ballot and remove Sánchez from office

Voting for the PP hurts, and yet part of the right-wing electorate is willing to do it just once. The reasoning is that November's election is not about choosing a governing programme: it is about whether Pedro Sánchez stays in La Moncloa, the prime minister's residence. The arithmetic behind this useful vote is that PP and Vox don't add up on the current map, so every ballot counts to stop Sánchez from once again bowing to Puigdemont. And there the consensus ends.

The usual closing argument is the same: if Sánchez survives, he will strike deals again with those who present themselves as Spain's adversaries — even, it is said, with those who made life impossible for anyone's grandfather. These are suspicions and partisan judgements with no case file behind them, but they work as the glue of a punishment vote. Some go further and accuse the acting prime minister of lies and an alleged abandonment of the Spanish people; sweeping claims, made without verifiable support, that would not survive serious scrutiny.

Why are some people calling for a vote for Vox instead of the PP?

Because, in a province-based electoral system, the leftovers of a collapsing party are not shared out among its allies: they swell the adversary. The calculation going around is concrete: if Vox drops sharply, the second and third seats in each province go to the PSOE. Hence the call to vote while holding your nose, even among those who think Vox has become too soft.

The paradox is that the same arithmetic reasoning is used to ask for a PP vote in some provinces and a Vox vote in others. Nobody has yet published a tally that adds up in both scenarios at once, and that gap is what leaves many voters with their ballot up in the air.

Alianza Catalana is not standing: the orphaned vote

Neither Silvia Orriols nor Alvise will appear on the ballot in the general election, in the view of those who had pinned their hopes on the momentum of both and now find themselves with no option. Alianza Catalana only runs in Catalonia and, as the saying goes, regards the general election as an election in another country; its supporters can vote for it in regional elections, but not in the general ones.

Elsewhere there are two ways out: abstain or resign yourself. Some have decided not to vote for anyone; others argue that staying home is precisely what guarantees the bloc's seats are lost by a handful of ballots.

Antiestéticar of the PP with an absolute majority

Rejection of the PP does not come only from the left: there are voters who antiestéticar an PP absolute majority more than the current government's continuation. The argument looks back and recalls that a previous absolute majority did not remove a single measure or law of the socialist government that had preceded it, and that the PP ended up facing a no-confidence motion that handed power to Sánchez instead of resigning and calling elections.

Two opposite conclusions trinc. Some prefer Vox while holding their nose, to keep the PP on a short leash if its red vein shows. Others conclude, with irony, that voting PP is the same flawless plan they have been running for half a century without delivering the promised results.

With these ingredients, the reasonable forecast is a divided right and a seat distribution decided in provinces where a few dozen votes change the last seat. If the useful-vote arithmetic holds, Sánchez will face an uphill battle. If it fails, the paradox will be complete: those who held their noses will have helped bring about what they wanted to avoid. No slogan solves that.