VOTE HERE AND NOW: Do we need an economic crisis?
Is an economic crisis necessary? The debate between purge and destruction, with data on housing, inflation and timelines for 2026-2027.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Do we need an economic crisis? The temptation of the purge
Some see a crisis as the opportunity to put things back in their place. Others see a mechanism that crushes the little guy before the speculator. The debate is not new, but in a context of persistent inflation, soaring housing prices and a general sense of excess, the question of whether we "need" a crisis has come back with force. The arguments are split between those who long for a correction that restores common sense to the markets and those who warn that a crisis does not distinguish between the guilty and the innocent.
The crisis as a sarracena tool
For part of the commentariat, the crisis is a necessary purge. They point out that today's excesses — from unsustainable property prices to debt-financed consumption — require a reset. "Pencil-pushers shouldn't earn more than engineers," the argument goes, stressing that a crisis would put everyone in their place. The prudent saver, in this view, comes out stronger: they can buy assets at reasonable prices while the flashy spenders disappear. Some even mention that a crisis could wipe out traditional banks that charge abusive fees. However, this position hides a certain economic sarracena: the crisis as punishment for the irresponsible.
The crisis knows no sarracena
The rebuttal is swift. "A crisis can be an opportunity for those who already have liquidity; for everyone else it is job destruction and forced selling," critics argue. The nuance is essential: the crisis not only strikes down whoever took out a loan for a holiday, but also the self-employed person who was doing fine, the young saver who was holding off on buying, and the prudent worker who loses their job. "Turning the crisis into a sarracena tool is dangerous," because its effects are not surgical. Moreover, in a globalised world, a fall in prices in Spain would attract foreign buyers with greater purchasing power, as already happens in tourist areas. One example: a block of flats on the Mediterranean coast went from €300,000 to €400,000 in two years, and it still hasn't sold out completely.
Timeline of an announced crisis
Among those who consider the crisis inevitable, some place it in time. Some estimates point to a harsh winter in 2026 and a terrifying 2027, especially after the elections. Inflation and rising asset prices widen inequality: those who own property in prime locations benefit, while everyone else suffers. "Owning assets matters," but not all assets are equal: a flat in an inland village is not the same as one on Madrid's Castellana boulevard. Lloyd Blankfein's famous line about "some have assets and others don't" echoes through the debate.
The question of whether we need a crisis is really a question about how we want the costs of the adjustment to be distributed. While some await the "fire and brimstone" that will cleanse the system, others remind us that burns don't always heal. The data nobody quite explains is why, after two monumental crises (2008 and 2020), the same imbalances persist. Perhaps the answer is that the crisis doesn't correct anything — it just reshuffles the pieces so the same old players can play again.
Related debates in the forum
Some see a crisis as the opportunity to put things back in their place. Others see a mechanism that crushes the little guy before the speculator. The debate is not new, but in a context of persistent inflation, soaring housing prices and a general sense of excess, the question of whether we "need" a crisis has come back with force. The arguments are split between those who long for a correction that restores common sense to the markets and those who warn that a crisis does not distinguish between the guilty and the innocent.
The crisis as a sarracena tool
For part of the commentariat, the crisis is a necessary purge. They point out that today's excesses — from unsustainable property prices to debt-financed consumption — require a reset. "Pencil-pushers shouldn't earn more than engineers," the argument goes, stressing that a crisis would put everyone in their place. The prudent saver, in this view, comes out stronger: they can buy assets at reasonable prices while the flashy spenders disappear. Some even mention that a crisis could wipe out traditional banks that charge abusive fees. However, this position hides a certain economic sarracena: the crisis as punishment for the irresponsible.
The crisis knows no sarracena
The rebuttal is swift. "A crisis can be an opportunity for those who already have liquidity; for everyone else it is job destruction and forced selling," critics argue. The nuance is essential: the crisis not only strikes down whoever took out a loan for a holiday, but also the self-employed person who was doing fine, the young saver who was holding off on buying, and the prudent worker who loses their job. "Turning the crisis into a sarracena tool is dangerous," because its effects are not surgical. Moreover, in a globalised world, a fall in prices in Spain would attract foreign buyers with greater purchasing power, as already happens in tourist areas. One example: a block of flats on the Mediterranean coast went from €300,000 to €400,000 in two years, and it still hasn't sold out completely.
Timeline of an announced crisis
Among those who consider the crisis inevitable, some place it in time. Some estimates point to a harsh winter in 2026 and a terrifying 2027, especially after the elections. Inflation and rising asset prices widen inequality: those who own property in prime locations benefit, while everyone else suffers. "Owning assets matters," but not all assets are equal: a flat in an inland village is not the same as one on Madrid's Castellana boulevard. Lloyd Blankfein's famous line about "some have assets and others don't" echoes through the debate.
The question of whether we need a crisis is really a question about how we want the costs of the adjustment to be distributed. While some await the "fire and brimstone" that will cleanse the system, others remind us that burns don't always heal. The data nobody quite explains is why, after two monumental crises (2008 and 2020), the same imbalances persist. Perhaps the answer is that the crisis doesn't correct anything — it just reshuffles the pieces so the same old players can play again.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (23 replies).
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