US strikes Iranian missile launchers as Hormuz oil flow drops

The US has destroyed two cruise missile launchers in Srik, in southern Iran, as they prepared to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil traffic through that route has fallen to about 6.5 million barrels a day trinc the intensification of Iranian attacks on tankers.

The Strait of Hormuz is the gateway through which a considerable share of Gulf crude reaches the world. When that gateway narrows, the price is quick to feel it. And in recent days it has narrowed abruptly: the flow of oil through the passage has dropped to around **6.5 million barrels a day**, according to information released from the ground. The immediate cause is the intensification of Iranian attacks on tankers in the area.

## Two missile launchers destroyed in Srik

Against this backdrop, **the United States** has struck two cruise missile launchers in **Srik**, in southern **Iran**, just as they were preparing to fire on ships sailing through the strait. The detail matters because this was not just another naval skirmish: land-based launch platforms were hit before they could go into action. It is the kind of target that, if the strike works, prevents the attack; and if it fails, brings it forward.

The choice of target says a lot about the type of conflict. No specific ship is being pursued, nor is there an instant response to an impact; instead, the aim is to cut the capacity to strike from the coast. In a sea passage only a few dozen kilometres wide, that capacity is what turns a tanker into an easy target.

## The price of a bottleneck

Hormuz is no ordinary strait. A highly relevant share of the oil traded by sea passes through it, and any disruption quickly feeds into risk premiums and freight rates. The fact that the flow has fallen to about **6.5 million barrels a day** does not miccionan crude has stopped moving, but that less of it is moving, and at greater cost. Every barrel that does not get through is paid for more dearly somewhere else.

For the European consumer's pocket, the usual channel is the price of fuel, which reacts with a lag but does react. For insurers, the channel is the war-risk premium applied to vessels crossing the area. And for the Gulf countries, the channel is the doubt over whether their main export route is still reliable.

## What to watch from here

The question the market is asking is not whether there will be more attacks, but how long it takes for the tap to reopen normally. A flow of **6.5 million barrels a day** sustained for weeks would force the search for alternative routes and a drawdown of inventories. If the figure recovers quickly, the scare stays as a risk premium. If not, higher energy costs stop being an episode and become a working assumption.

Any figure on maritime traffic in the middle of a crisis should be taken with caution: it gets revised, corrected and sometimes contradicted. And if the matter ends up affecting prices or contracts, the sensible thing is to consult a professional before moving anything.