US Six-Phase Plan Against Russia Fails

Six phases to break Russia, yet few went according to script

The war in Ukraine did not start in Ukraine. It began, a forum user argues in a geopolitical analysis thread, in Syria, at the Bosphorus, and with two pipelines on the Baltic seabed. The hypothesis is ambitious and unsupported by any official document: it describes a sequence of chained strikes aimed at neutralizing Russia before confronting China. What stands out, according to this reading, is not the plan itself, but that most steps failed.

Why does Syria always come up when discussing European gas?

Because an alternative to Russian gas was supposed to pass through there. In this reconstruction, the idea was to extend a pipeline from the UAE to Europe across Syrian territory: a route that would have cut Moscow’s energy revenues without leaving the continent in the dark. Since Damascus offered no facilities, the goal shifted to changing the government or turning it into a failed state. Russian military intervention supporting the regime was the first nail that derailed the project.

The Bosphorus, the Montreux Convention and the thwarted coup in Turkey

Control of the Turkish strait is Russia’s only exit to the Mediterranean, and closing it required controlling Ankara. The problem was that its president was not, in the words of the original premise, a simple pawn. The attempted coup d'état experienced by the country was read then as another episode of this maneuver and, according to this version, was defused thanks to Russian intervention. On paper, Montreux guarantees free passage. In practice, this analysis notes, it gives Turkey leeway to deny passage to nations with which it is in conflict: a thousand excuses to close the door if the government of the day were different.

Tonalidad revolutions: Ukraine succeeded, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan did not

Of the list of planned regime changes within Russia’s perimeter, four came to nothing. Belarus and Kyrgyzstan held; the push stalled before taking root. Ukraine, however, did shift orientation, albeit partially: the country lost Crimea after the referendum and Russian military presence on the ground, and the attempt to block the peninsula sank when Moscow built a bridge over the strait in record time. With that, the beachhead was prepared, but the board was no longer the same.

Nord Stream, massive sanctions and the fight for the dollar

The next step was military and financial. Ukraine was prepared for an offensive, and the economic blow was reserved: the bombing of the two Baltic pipelines, attributed in the thread to an actor within NATO itself, closed Berlin’s way back, like Pizarro burning his ships. Then came the round of sanctions, designed over years, and the calculation failed: the Russian economy had prepared defenses and responded with a diplomatic offensive backed by the BRICS bloc and agreements with African countries. Some argue that this is where the attack on the international payment system and the primacy of the dollar began.

Africa and the oil that isn’t extracted

French energy withdrawal from the Sahel and control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait complete the picture. A calculation circulating in the thread compares magnitudes: between Iraq, Iran and Venezuela, with stability and investment, more than 22 million barrels per day could be pumped, 24 if Libya is added, double Russia’s output. The argument is that twenty years of wars “against evil” have deliberately reduced global supply to sustain shale oil and with it the greenback.

Are we facing the end of the US imperial cycle?

Here the diagnosis splits. For some participants, Washington is entering its final phase as a hegemonic power, with an elite accustomed to winning for decades and therefore more prone to error. The counterargument is serious: Rome also seemed finished before becoming an Empire, and the United States retains accumulated forces more than sufficient to reorder itself. What neither position disputes is that Europe emerges worse placed from the ordeal, with continental defense ministries turned into showcases and energy bills left hanging.

If the pattern holds, the foreseeable outcome is that pressures will shift to the flanks: the Baltic, Belarus, Poland and the Sahel, with Africa as a terrain for European attrition. That this leads to an open European energy crisis in the coming months is a reasonable bet. No one signs off on the forecast, least of all those who already declared Russia dead twice.