Urda tragedy stalls PSOE growth, boosts PP-Vox majority

The railway accident on October 28 in Urda, with 69 fatalities, has halted the PSOE's momentum in polls, leaving them with 101-110 seats. PP and Vox total between 198 and 215 MPs, well above the 176 needed for an absolute majority.

Some campaigns derail due to a bad debate; others because reality intervenes. The campaign for November 29 has been off-track since October 28, when a train derailed in **Urda**, killing **69 people**. Since then, the PSOE's polling series, which had been rising since the start of the pre-campaign, has reversed.

## PSOE loses pre-campaign momentum

The Votómetro by **THE OBJECTIVE**, produced by Redlines Estrategia y Comunicación, places the socialists in a range of **101 to 110 seats**. This is the first clear setback since the pre-campaign began. The catastrophe does not explain the shift alone, but it coincides with the turning point.

The party retains a floor that is not catastrophic and a ceiling that prevents breathing room. In a system where blocs move by just a few dozen seats, this range leaves the PSOE without margin to renew a majority.

## Feijóo wins, though may fall below 2023 levels

The PP remains first, with **30.9%** of the vote and a range of **131 to 140 seats**. Victory is beyond doubt. The size is another matter. In the worst-case scenario, the Popular Party would remain up to six MPs below their result from July 23, 2023.

That detail matters more than it seems. A PP that wins but does not grow forces attention to the right, where the partner awaits. UPN also advances slightly in this update.

## Vox posts consecutive gains since October 6

**Santiago Abascal**'s party has been growing for weeks since the election call on **October 6**. The Votómetro gives them between **67 and 75 seats** and **19.3%** of the vote. That is nearly seven percentage points more than in the 2023 general elections and up to 42 additional MPs.

Vox repeats as the party with the highest voter loyalty, a metric worth as much as seat counts during a campaign: it means their electorate does not waver when others tremble.

## An absolute majority with a name and surname

The sum of **PP and Vox** ranges between **198 and 215 MPs**. The absolute majority sits at **176**. The cushion is wide in any scenario. The probability that **Alberto Núñez Feijóo** and Abascal reach La Moncloa remains at **98.6%**.

Polls are snapshots, not prophecies. An accident with 69 deaths has shifted the board in three weeks, so one should treat any range with the caution of someone who knows November 29 has not yet arrived.