Uber: Buying the $60 Panic Dip and Selling the $73 Rebound
Can you profit from Uber by buying when everyone else is selling? Based on recent trading activity around this stock, yes: investors entered near $60, endured the post-earnings drop, and exited with profits in the $73 range. This wasn't luck; it was a technical read of long-term support, a measured two-wave correction, and a bet on fundamentals. At the time, Uber traded at a P/E ratio of 30, with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi as a key asset.
The $60 Support: Where and Why They Bought
The thesis was simple but hard to execute: Uber touched its long-term trendline, a powerful support level. Technical analysis identified two similar corrective waves—one from $87 to $70, another from $76.40 to $60—a pattern often preceding a rebound. Buy orders were placed around $60, executed at $59.90 and €62 depending on the trader's base currency.
Doubts existed. Bollinger Bands showed oversold conditions, and prices had fallen throughout December. Why not wait for secondary support? The consensus was that the long-term trendline is robust, and levels like $60.00, $60.27, or $60.47 represent the same zone. Significant buys occurred here, including one nearly €7,000.
The Island Gap: When Markets Offer Fire Sales
Earnings triggered a sharp drop, causing many investors to capitulate. Post-analysis revealed an "island" formation—a price gap isolating a segment, signaling exhaustion and reversal. Volume data confirmed widespread panic selling.
The conclusion was stark: this was a portfolio raid. Antiestéticar drove sales at bargain prices, trinc by a vertical rally without corrections, locking out late buyers. This illustrates how liquidity can become a trap.
The Exit: $73.41 and 20% Returns
The rebound arrived, triggering sales. Resistance at $70 (the 0.382 retracement) broke. Exits occurred near $73.41, yielding gains up to 20%, though some settled for 14% by missing the peak. Discipline held: buy again upon correction.
Bill Ackman's announcement shifted the narrative. He disclosed buying 30.3 million Uber shares, citing early admiration sparked by Edward Norton. While positive, it didn't change the broader view: major S&P 500 stocks looked expensive technically, making medium-to-long-term holds less attractive.
The Overlooked Risk: Tesla's Robotaxi
Tesla's robotaxi remains a mid-term threat. Some argue capital flows to Tesla due to expected dominance, despite unclear Musk intentions. An alternative scenario involves partnership: Tesla supplies vehicles, Uber takes 50% revenue. Meanwhile, Uber maintains a 30 P/E and a consensus-building CEO.
Technical warnings persist: ceiling patterns, sideways consolidation, and bearish crossovers of 50/150-day moving averages suggest caution against treating Uber as a long-term hold. Rapid rallies also raise sustainability concerns.
Ultimately, traders profited. Some bought at $59.90 and sold at $73.41; others sold €75.50 items bought at €60 a month prior; some regretted missing the $74 exit. The rubber band stretched fast, and the last euro always goes to someone else.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
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