Forum user urges Tesla buy, predicts 100% rally

50% drop in a month and the promise of a 100% Tesla rebound

How far must Tesla fall before the stock stops looking cheap? A 50% drop in one month, according to messages exchanged in the conversation. That is the starting point of the most aggressive narrative spreading about the company: precisely because the price has halved, some argue that the opportunity to enter has never been better. The thesis does not rely on quarterly results or new business data. It relies on the crash. The lower it goes, the more of a bargain. And with earnings reports on the calendar, the bet becomes all-or-nothing.

Executives sell while buyers are encouraged

There is an uncomfortable contradiction at the center of the story. While part of the conversation calls for jumping on the bandwagon, the cited trading records show three key names reducing positions. Elon Musk recorded a sale of $2.147 billion on December 14, 2022. Two weeks later, Andrew Baglino sold $1.23 million. And on January 6, 2023, Zachary Kirkhorn disposed of $410,158 worth of shares.

This is not proof of anything on its own, but it does not fit the scenario painted by those urging full commitment. The data is thrown into the discussion as a weighty argument: if they are selling, why should I?

Why is Tesla considered to trade at a P/E of 60?

Because at these multiples, the price no longer reflects what the company earns today but discounts what it will earn years from now. A P/E of 60 means paying 60 times annual profit, a figure only sustainable with very high and sustained growth over time. The most repeated objection is that manufacturing cars does not work like a tech company: each new plant requires investment, staff, and time, and only then is previous capacity replicated. A software company can double revenue without multiplying capital; an automaker cannot.

The parallel used to explain what is considered exceptional is Apple or Coca-Cola: brands capable of maintaining price and market share without losing margin. Hence the nuance that summarizes the problem: the valuation sustaining it as a tech firm becomes expensive once the market starts viewing it as what it is, a car manufacturer. And that change of label, without prior notice, wipes out the entire multiple.

Tesla sales volume versus Volkswagen or Mercedes

Here come the numbers that cause the most discomfort. In Germany, Tesla sells around 10,000 cars per month, according to the figures being handled. The data cited for major German manufacturers in that same market are on another scale:

• Volkswagen: 50,000 cars monthly
• Mercedes: 25,000
• Audi: 22,000
• BMW: 20,000

Seat or Hyundai also sell around that amount. In Spain, however, the cited data place Tesla ahead: about 4,000 cars this year, compared to KIA's 2,200, Fiat's 1,700, and Citroën's 1,300, with almost all manufacturers moving between 500 and 1,000 units. The conclusion drawn by the skeptical side is that the valuation premium discounted a market dominance that no data supports.

Autopilot ceases to be an advantage

For years, autonomous driving supported much of the price. Level 4 or 5 was promised within a couple of years, and Tesla was the place to work if you were cutting-edge in AI. The problem, according to this analysis, is that pogre stalled and other manufacturers quietly closed the gap: some with their own developments and others partnering with tech firms. The advantage faded, along with part of the argument justifying paying more for the stock.

Rebound from lows and the results that decide everything

And yet, the rebound arrived. From the lows, the stock would have recovered nearly 40% in less than a month, according to thread messages, with days of gains near 8% without any news behind them. For some, confirmation that the drop was an excess; for others, a classic dead cat bounce before a larger correction. One trader warns that rising sharply just before reporting earnings often anticipates a serious flop, not a party.

The calendar placed the key date on the 25th. The most optimistic messages spoke of a jump to $200; skeptics predicted drops to $80. In the middle, the recurring promise: a €30,000 compact Tesla and a vehicle not yet manufactured as arguments to hold on.

There is something almost endearing in the certainty with which round numbers—a 100%, a stop at $300—are repeated when the underlying asset has spent a month proving it respects none. The headline train has already left and returned three times. Getting on costs the same as getting off.