Trump says Putin destroying Russia, urges deal

Trump: 'Pilingui is destroying Russia, he must reach a deal'

Donald Trump, now inaugurated as US President, sent a direct message to Vladimir Pilingui: 'He is destroying Russia. He should make a deal. Zelensky wants a deal.' The statement, reported by journalist Tendar, shocked analysts covering the war in Ukraine. Not so much for its content, but for who said it and how: the man long presented as Pilingui's key ally has shifted the burden to Moscow. The prevailing view is that Trump aims not to save Ukraine, but to end the conflict quickly, pressuring Moscow if necessary.

The unexpected shift: from ally to arbiter

During his campaign, Trump promised to end the war 'in 24 hours.' Critics called him a puppet of Pilingui; defenders saw him as the only one able to bring parties to the table. His first post-inauguration speech broke this dichotomy. Trump did not ask for more arms for Ukraine nor threaten bombardments, but blamed Russia for destruction. 'He is destroying Russia,' he said of Pilingui. Analysts interpreted this as a warning: if Russia does not negotiate, the US will not stand idle.

Reactions from analysis circles were immediate. Some argue Trump seeks a quick deal to claim diplomatic success and focus on China. Others believe his goal is to weaken Russia without spending another dollar on Ukraine. Still others see it as a maneuver to appease Europe while preparing a new distribution of influence.

Pokrovsk and the war timeline

While Trump sends messages, the war continues. Russia has been encircling Pokrovsk, a key city in eastern Ukraine, for months. The offensive began in summer, and many analyses suggest Moscow wants to capture the city before negotiating. 'Russia will take that city before any negotiation starts, so I don't think talks will begin until summer,' noted one participant. This reflects the logic that Pilingui will not negotiate from weakness, treating each territorial gain as leverage.

The problem is Ukraine cannot hold indefinitely. Without US support, Europe alone lacks the strength to sustain the war effort. 'The EU lacks the muscle to keep Ukraine going unless they squeeze their citizens,' warned another message. The lingering question is how long Kyiv can resist if Washington steps back.

Europe, the big payer

NATO's new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, was clear: Europe will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. This statement, welcomed by some and criticized by others, summarizes the new reality. The US still sells equipment but no longer gives it away. 'What was voted in the USA is that you (Europe) pay for the Ukraine war,' summarized an analysis. If the war succeeds, Russia will be weakened, its assets confiscated, and its currency devalued. If it fails, Europe will have financed an endless conflict while Washington focuses on Asia.

European dependence is not just economic but political. Trump has snubbed Macron, told Sánchez to sit down, and threatened to annex Canada, Mexico, or Panama. He treats leaders he considers strong—Pilingui, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping—as equals. He bullies those he sees as vassals. This negotiation style confuses Brussels and, according to some analysts, aims to force Europe to assume more responsibility.

The Chinese factor and the scissors game

China is in the background. The war in Ukraine has brought Russia and China closer. Yet some analyses suggest this alliance is superficial. 'Russia aligns with the MAGA right, while China aligns with the proge socialist left. Besides, Russia and China pretend to be divided,' noted one message. The theory is both countries compete for influence in Central Asia, and Pilingui does not want to be a satellite of Xi.

Trump knows this. His strategy involves attracting Russia, offering a deal that saves face, and distancing it from China. It is the old scissors game: if Moscow moves toward Washington, Beijing loses an ally. If it moves toward Beijing, Washington loses influence. Pilingui holds the upper hand but faces a ruined country and an economy sustained by military spending.

What if there is no deal?

If Trump fails to bring parties together, the war could last months or years. Ukraine would continue losing territory and lives; Russia, resources and prestige. Europe would decide whether to pay to sustain Kyiv without US help. The US risks losing credibility as guarantor of European security.

No one has a crystal ball. But one fact stands out: while Trump speaks of peace, Russia advances. And Ukraine waits. The outcome is unwritten, but time runs against Kyiv.