Trump promises $5,000 per voter ahead of the midterms

Trump promises $5,000 per citizen with the midterms at stake

$5,000 for every citizen if he wins the midterms. Trump's promise hits like a time bomb: first the astonishment, then the calculator. With roughly 350 million inhabitants, the collective check comes to $1.75 trillion. In his first term he already promised $2,000 per person that never materialized. Now he doubles down, with oil near $100 and the US bond above 5%.

The bill: 350 million people times $5,000

The arithmetic is stubborn. 350 million people multiplied by $5,000 equals $1.75 trillion. It is not an abstract figure: it equals several full years of federal spending. With national debt at $40 trillion and bond yields above 5%, the argument that "a couple more trillion changes nothing" only holds on paper. Those defending the measure argue the money would flow back into the economy if recipients were required to spend it on products made in the United States, so the circuit stays within the country.

From Zapatero to Trump: a comparison of vote-buying handouts

The Spanish precedent appears without looking for it. Zapatero won re-election promising 400 euros to every Spanish income tax filer, a check that became fixed in the collective memory as the benchmark for all subsequent campaign promises. The difference is scale: 400 euros then versus $5,000 now. The temptation to call it vote-buying has crossed the Atlantic, and from within Spanish politics itself the term "pagüita" (a slang word for a little handout) has been used to describe the offer. Here the promise is read with irony: the one handing out checks is usually the one who later raises taxes to pay for them.

Why almost nobody believes the announcement

Skepticism dominates the analysis. The first doubt is economic: funding the check requires issuing debt or printing money, and both feed inflation. The second is historical: the $2,000 promise from his first term never materialized. The third is structural: if the dollar depreciates, the $5,000 will be worth less than on the day of the announcement. Hence many anticipate that citizens would soon convert them into bitcoin, gold or equities before the purchasing power evaporates. The context does not help: with crude around $100 and WTI at 102, the leader promising to hand out checks is the same one who needs to contain prices.

Nor does anyone rule out that the announcement hides a side interest in the crypto universe, where Trump's own circle has known interests.

A final detail: the promised check is today almost twelve times Zapatero's. In fifteen years the campaign promise has multiplied twelvefold. Credibility, however, has not fared the same.