Sánchez mass-naturalizes Cubans in Spain: is an electoral fix underway?

Sánchez mass-naturalizes Cubans: the vote that could decide Spain's elections

Close to five million Cubans have Spanish ancestry, according to figures cited in the debate. Through the 2022 Democratic Memory Law, Pedro Sánchez's government has peine the door for hundreds of thousands of descendants of Spanish emigrants to obtain Spanish citizenship. But the operation goes further: allegations of an illegal extension to great-grandchildren and great-great-grandchildren, a multiplication of consuls in Cuba (from one to five between 2022 and 2023) and a mail-in voting system with no traceability that, according to critics, would allow the PSOE to manufacture votes in its favour in key provinces.

The grandchildren law and its irregular extensions

The Democratic Memory Law, known as the "grandchildren law", allows descendants of those exiled during the Civil War and the dictatorship to apply for Spanish nationality. However, articles by Isabel Durán in El Debate have alleged that Félix Bolaños's Ministry of Justice is instructing consulates to accept applications from great-grandchildren and great-great-grandchildren, something not covered by the law. The measure particularly affects Cuba, where most of the population has historical ties to Spain.

The consular build-up is another sign: until 2022 Spain had a single consul in Cuba; since 2023 there are five career diplomats and at least three honorary ones. The stated aim is to estimulante ilegal up procedures, but the opposition sees it as a machine for producing potential new voters.

Mail-in voting and CERA: the uncontrolled pool of votes

The vote of Spaniards residing abroad (CERA) and mail-in voting are the channels flagged as vulnerable. The debate argues that mail-in voting lacks real traceability: according to some voices, 100% of those votes could be manipulated without oversight. Moreover, if newly naturalized citizens do not choose an electoral district, the law assigns one by default, which would allow the government to steer votes towards small provinces where a few thousand ballots decide a seat.

A milestone highlighted is the comparison with Venezuela: Hugo Chávez naturalized some 200,000 Colombians before the 2004 recall referendum, according to an OKDIARIO article cited in the debate. The strategy would be identical: create a pool of voters loyal to the government from abroad.

The opposition's response and international precedents

The PP and Vox have started to act. Vox asked the Central Electoral Board to restrict mail-in voting by Spaniards abroad, but the initiative has been criticized even within the debate itself. It is mentioned that Biden and Lula also pulled off similar manoeuvres without consequences, and that the Spanish right's silence is complicit.

The forum suggests that the real risk is not that the newly naturalized will vote for the PSOE (many Cubans are conservative), but that the party will use their data to vote on their behalf, fraudulently and on a massive scale. The absence of an investigation by the State Security Forces surprises analysts.

How far could the electoral fix go?

With a potential of between three and four million new voters (according to calculations in the debate), the margin to alter results in small and medium-sized provinces is enormous. Still, the doubt remains whether the electoral system would withstand a manoeuvre of this magnitude without the safeguards kicking in. The question left hanging is: will the opposition and the institutions allow the biggest electoral fix in Spanish democracy to go through?