The Price Tag of Failed Climate Prophecies

The Cost of Failed Climate Prophecies

In 2018, a ruling by the High Court of Justice of Castilla y León halted construction on the San Glorio ski resort. The argument: scientific studies predicted that there would be insufficient snow below 2,000 meters, rendering the facility unviable. The decision relied on a UN report projecting accelerated global warming. However, a decade later, snow continues to fall every winter, and the resort has not been built.
This case exemplifies a trend that is fueling growing skepticism: the economic cost of climate predictions that fail to materialize.

A History of Broken Promises

This is not an isolated case. In 2014, it was predicted that the Ebro River would turn into a dry bed; in 2019, the river experienced an extraordinary flood. The IPCC once claimed that Asturias would experience a tropical climate in 2020; today, Asturian winters remain cold. Even the famous Pacific 'plastic island,' which some media reported was the size of France, Spain, and Germany combined, is neither visible from space nor has it been accurately located.
These examples, compiled in the essay "Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions," feed into the perception that apocalyptic discourse is constantly delayed, much like the prophecies of Jehovah's Witnesses.

The Business of Uncertainty

Beyond the scientific ridicule, the issue has an economic dimension. The paralysis of San Glorio is an example of how these decisions impact business projects. The Agenda 2030, criticized by some deputies and experts, is perceived as a tool for impoverishing the population, through measures like mandatory energy labels on homes, which increase housing costs. Insurers are already adjusting premiums due to climate risk, while public administrations allocate millions of euros to adapt to scenarios of up to 3.3 degrees of warming, as recommended by the EU.

Dissenting Voices in Science

Not everyone accepts the official narrative. Nobel Prize winner in Physics, Ivar Giaever, has called global warming "a scam" and maintains that climate change is of natural origin. José Antonio Maldonado, honorary president of the Spanish Meteorological Association, doubts the drastic human influence. Geologists like Sáenz de Santamaría dismantle the political and media arguments. Even satellite data shows that July 2023 was not the warmest month on record, contrary to NASA's claims. These positions, though minority ones, question the foundation of the consensus.

Geoengineering as a Plan B

Meanwhile, money flows into geoengineering solutions. The startup Stardust Solutions has raised 60 million dollars to test technology that reflects sunlight. Paradoxically, resources are invested in cooling the planet while the possibility of natural climate regulation is dismissed.
The phrase attributed to Lyndon Johnson, "whoever controls the weather controls the world," resonates in this context.

Open Conclusions

The tension between catastrophism and skepticism remains unresolved. Predictions continue to fail, but policies based on them are implemented with tangible costs. How much is it worth paying for an uncertain future? The answer remains open.

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