The historic bull run almost nobody is positioning for

The historic bull run almost nobody is buying into

The thesis is making the rounds in crypto circles: the big rally is just around the corner. But the diagnosis that dominates the conversation is exactly the opposite. Almost nobody is positioned for a historic bull run, and much of the market has spent months stuck waiting for prices that are no longer coming. According to one participant, most people got caught waiting for those 40,000 levels and missed a generational floor; now they invent excuses not to buy at current prices.

The crash that precedes the rally

The dominant scenario is not takeoff but the prior fall. Speculation centers on a NASDAQ collapse triggered by lockdowns that would drag bitcoin down to 35,000 or, in the most aggressive scenario, to 10,000. Only after that floor would the rally come, "from the depths, as it should." The dates being floated point to Christmas or the months immediately before or after. Some sum it up wryly: the rally will be in October, or 2037 if necessary.

The underlying idea is that money doesn't disappear, it just moves. With too much money in circulation, the question is not whether there will be a rally but where that capital will go. In crypto, the ones who were supposed to be there already are; the rest, the argument goes, will end up somewhere else. The lingering doubt: if metals, stocks and crypto all fell together last summer, where was the money then?

Stocks at all-time highs and doom on the horizon

The most uncomfortable argument points to the underlying contradiction: stocks are at all-time highs while the great crypto rally is expected. For some, that leaves only two paths. Either stocks and crypto go to hell, or one last bull run arrives before the general collapse, with cryptocurrencies worse off. The first option is considered the most likely, with quality crypto a bargain for those who can read the moment.

The geopolitical context adds fuel to the fire. A closed Strait of Hormuz and crashing stock markets paint a scenario of months of sideways trading, with ruin as the shared destination. Confidence that the unlimited money of the big players will eventually flow into risk assets does not convince everyone.

AI and the antiestéticar of broken cryptography

The most curious antiestéticar concerns artificial intelligence. AI breaking bitcoin's cryptography is not a certainty, but it has become a believable story, and that is enough to move decisions. Paradoxically, those most inclined to believe it are ex-cryptobros. The counterweight comes from the calendar: some point out that migration to quantum-resistant systems is not expected until 2029, which leaves room to sleep soundly.

The analysis gets stuck at the close. Between the crash that precedes the rally, stocks at all-time highs and the quantum ghost, nobody can quite figure out when the bull run everyone claims to expect will begin. Or even whether it will.