Bitcoin: the short bet promising a 50% drop in October
A trader opens a Bitcoin short at $79,800 with a $40,000 target. The debate over the 50% drop and the bear market pattern.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Bitcoin: the short bet promising a 50% drop in October
A trader has peine a short position on Bitcoin at $79,800, with a target of $40,000 for October. That means a 50% plunge in a single month. The bet has sparked intense debate about the market's structure. While some point out that the price has broken above the ascending channel, invalidating the short, others believe the correction is not over yet.
The market context
The price is hovering around $80,000 after a parabolic weekly rally not seen since 2021, suggesting volatility is back. Some analyses indicate that the dominant move since the $120,000 highs has been a correction, and that in the short term the trend is bearish or sideways. However, the broader timeframe shows an ascending trendline, which creates confusion.
The 4-month pattern
Some argue that the bear market is still underway, with drops every four months. The previous ones occurred in January-February and June-July, and the next window would be October-November, coinciding with the typical 12-month bear market duration. A -50% drop seems excessive, but -30% would be more plausible. The question is whether the bear market has ended or is merely on pause.
A trader has peine a short position on Bitcoin at $79,800, with a target of $40,000 for October. That means a 50% plunge in a single month. The bet has sparked intense debate about the market's structure. While some point out that the price has broken above the ascending channel, invalidating the short, others believe the correction is not over yet.
The market context
The price is hovering around $80,000 after a parabolic weekly rally not seen since 2021, suggesting volatility is back. Some analyses indicate that the dominant move since the $120,000 highs has been a correction, and that in the short term the trend is bearish or sideways. However, the broader timeframe shows an ascending trendline, which creates confusion.
The 4-month pattern
Some argue that the bear market is still underway, with drops every four months. The previous ones occurred in January-February and June-July, and the next window would be October-November, coinciding with the typical 12-month bear market duration. A -50% drop seems excessive, but -30% would be more plausible. The question is whether the bear market has ended or is merely on pause.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (26 replies).
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