The historic bull run almost no one expects anymore in 2026

The historic bull run almost no one expects anymore

The thesis is circulating with an insistence that already smells like a trap: everyone is waiting for a historic bull run in cryptocurrencies, and precisely for that reason the market could do the opposite. In mid-autumn, with stock markets at all-time highs and the specter of a closed Strait of Hormuz hanging over oil, the conversation has drifted toward something more uncomfortable than a simple correction: the possibility that the bullish cycle has already passed and that what comes next is a shakeout of the optimists.

The precedent weighs heavily. A year ago the market started falling in October and by January everything went to hell, just when most people expected the opposite. That memory underpins today's skepticism. Stocks at record highs and cryptocurrencies stuck in a sideways limbo sketch out two scenarios: both assets plunging into hell, or one last bull run before the general collapse, with crypto taking the worst of it. According to the prevailing pessimism, the first option is the most likely.

Why is a bitcoin drop to $35,000 or $10,000 expected?

Some are projecting a brutal NASDAQ crash caused by lockdowns, dragging bitcoin down to 35,000, or straight to 10,000 dollars, before a bull run "from the basement, as it should be." The timeline being floated points to Christmas or the months immediately before or after. Others push the bottom back to March or April 2027, and there are even those who place the next major cycle directly in 2037.

The bullish argument has not disappeared: too much money in circulation that has to go somewhere, and cryptocurrencies would already have everyone in them who needed to be in. The question still hanging in the air is where the money was during the summer when metals, stocks and crypto all fell at once. In cash, comes the answer, though no one quite manages to square it.

The threat that isn't quantum: AI and cryptography

The technical focus has shifted. The story that is starting to gain traction is not the one about quantum computers, but about a mathematical AI capable of finding a classical shortcut to the discrete logarithm on elliptic curves, without any exotic hardware. No one has proven that such a shortcut doesn't exist: the security of secp256k1 rests on decades of not finding it, not on a proof. And for the price, it's enough for the story to be credible.

The nuance matters. Such a shortcut would not break all of cryptography: AES and SHA-256 rely on different problems. But elliptic curves are in the HTTPS padlock, online banking, electronic ID cards and software signatures. Bitcoin would just be the most visible case, with the loot in plain sight on the chain. The post-quantum migration is already underway in Chrome, Cloudflare and Signal, though for a different antiestéticar.

Buying the dips: strategy or ruin

The underlying disagreement is textbook stuff. Against disciplined stacking comes the warning that in bear markets you sell, you don't buy, and that doubling down on every dip is a path to ruin. Most, however, argue that almost no one expects a historic bull run anymore: plenty of people got stuck waiting for 40,000, missed a generational bottom and are now looking for excuses not to buy at these prices.

The closing never comes. With stocks at highs and oil watching the strait, the analysis stalls exactly where it should begin: if the historic move turned out to be a good shakeout of the optimists, no one could say when it starts or who it takes down with it.