Study estimates immigration costs in Spain at €16.5 billion

€16.5 billion in line items: how the cost of immigration is estimated

Putting a price tag on immigration in Spain can be done with a spreadsheet. It has been done. A tally circulated in a forum totals €16.513 billion, updated as of August 28, 2019. The details matter more than the total: three categories account for nearly all the money, several are unquantified, and the revenue section relies on a simple VAT ratio. The striking part isn't the figure itself, but what it leaves out.

Healthcare, education, and pensions: the three main costs

With average healthcare spending per capita of €1,565 annually and 5,947,000 foreign-origin residents, the bill reaches €9.307 billion. Education adds €5.773 billion, calculated by multiplying the €8,008 average cost per student by the 721,018 enrolled pupils. Non-contributory benefits from SEPE (Spain's public employment service), which do not require prior contributions, amount to €512 million for nearly 100,000 recipients.

These three categories concentrate over 90% of the total. All three are calculated the same way: an average multiplied by a census count. Without microdata, income brackets, or distinctions between EU residents and those in irregular situations. It is an approximation, not accounting.

What does it cost to support unaccompanied minors and inmates?

The section on unaccompanied foreign minors is fragmented. The central government transferred €40 million to autonomous communities. The Community of Madrid valued care for 1,250 minors at €17 million, i.e., €13,600 per head. Extrapolated to the 12,300 registered minors in Spain, this yields at least €167 million.

Prison costs are estimated at €1,806 monthly per inmate, €21,672 annually. With 16,549 foreign prisoners, the figure reaches €358.6 million. Added to this are €7.24 million for eight foreign internment centers in 2016, €10.8 million for deportation flights tendered in 2018, and the €318 million managed by the General Secretariat of Immigration and Emigration for programs targeting this group.

How much do immigrants contribute in taxes?

Here the calculation becomes much more fragile. Spain collected €67.717 billion in VAT in 2017. Among 46.57 million inhabitants, that equals €1,454 per person. If foreign-origin residents consume and pay taxes like the average—a debatable assumption—they contribute €8.647 billion.

The debate itself raises significant objections. Part of migrant savings leaves the country as remittances, reducing consumption and generated VAT. Income tax (IRPF) is nearly negligible for low incomes, and much of the income tax paid by high-earning foreign residents would correspond, according to some arguments, to retirees and professionals from Western countries, not economic migration. A more generous estimate cited in the same exchange raises fiscal revenues to €14.9 billion, leaving a negative balance of €1.6 billion annually.

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Regional minimum incomes: the expense no one breaks down

The Basque Country grants the Income Guarantee Benefit with a budget of €402.1 million, of which 30% of recipients are foreigners, plus a complementary housing benefit of €89.1 million with 52% foreign beneficiaries. These are the only regional breakdowns included in this tally; for other communities, no figures or percentages are provided.

The Basque Country's 2018-2020 housing master plan mobilizes €1.119 billion, about €373 million per year, without the tally detailing the nationality distribution of beneficiaries. Rent subsidies and minimum incomes in other regions remain, practically speaking, blank lines.

Two years of tracking: what was added to the calculation

The tally did not start complete. Each revision incorporated new items: first unaccompanied minors, then prisoners, later rent subsidies. Over time, the focus shifted to events like the mass arrival in Ceuta, the announcement of repopulating municipalities in Castilla-La Mancha with migrant populations, or the possibility of regularizing those who lost jobs during the pandemic. On paper, each of these movements adds unquantified expenses.

Items mentioned were never added to the total. Healthcare for people in irregular situations, which according to an estimate by elEconomista would cost €1.1 billion annually. The €2,130 for childbirth or €19,000 for appendicitis. The annual cost of a diabetic patient, calculated at €1,770. Also mentioned, though not public expenditure, are the €14.5 billion in remittances sent abroad in 2017.

What to expect from this accounting

The reasonable short-term conclusion is that the account will not close. The debate notes that administrations do not provide these data in a homogeneous format, and regional items will remain the main gap in the calculation. If someone expects a clean verdict on whether the balance is positive or negative, they won't find it here: it depends on how many unquantified items enter the debit side and what is accepted as credit. Most likely, the number will continue rising on the expense side, while the revenue breakdown will continue relying on national averages that do not distinguish between a British retiree in Alicante and an undocumented seasonal worker.