Structural urgency: Iran is on the verge of surrender

Iran is not surrendering: the tally of a war that exposes the US

When the official argument is that Iran is "on the verge of surrender", the data from the front tells a different story. In recent months, the coalition led by the United States and Israel has failed to achieve any of its declared objectives: overthrowing the ayatollahs, eliminating Iran's nuclear program or dismantling its power-projection capability. On the contrary, the Tehran regime is still standing, its nuclear program is advancing and, according to sources from the conflict, it has managed to strike key US assets, including an F-35 fighter jet. However, the cost for Iran is brutal: inflation above 50%, the collapse of its currency and severe damage to its energy infrastructure. The question is not whether Iran surrenders, but who can hold out longer.

The objectives that were never met

The coalition's list of goals is clear: regime change, an end to the nuclear program and the destruction of Iran's military capabilities. To date, none has materialized. Iran's supreme leader remains in power, uranium enrichment continues and missiles keep hitting Israeli territory. As a recurring analysis in the debate points out, the war has shown that possessing nuclear weapons is the ultimate guarantee of survival, which has probably pushed Iran to accelerate its efforts to obtain the bomb. The irony is that the aggression has strengthened the regime internally, generating a "rally around the flag" effect that consolidates its popular support.

The asymmetric cost: who is bleeding more?

Iran is paying a very high price. Inflation exceeds 50%, the currency has collapsed and the energy infrastructure has suffered real damage. The war of attrition is draining its economy. But the coalition is not coming out unscathed either: the price of gasoline in the United States has reached 8 dollars per gallon, at least one F-35 has been lost, and the credibility of "imperial protection" is crumbling. Several analysts point out that being an ally of the United States and hosting its military bases has become more of a risk than an advantage. In addition, Iran has passed a bill to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, with fees of up to 2 million dollars per tanker, a measure that could turn the passage into a massive source of income in petroyuan.

The global chessboard: China and Russia watch

The conflict does not happen in a vacuum. The war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan shape the response of the great powers. Russia and China are watching as the United States wears itself down in a front it cannot win decisively. The possibility of China invading Taiwan in 2027, as some speculate, adds another layer of uncertainty. For now, Beijing is in no hurry: watching the hegemon get bogged down is a far too profitable alternative to intervene.

The "structural urgency" of the original headline seems to apply more to the American position than to the Iranian one. Iran is not surrendering; it negotiates from a position of mutual attrition. The real outcome will not be written in months, but in years, and will depend on who has the greater capacity to endure the economic and political pain. The data nobody quite explains is why, with all its technological and military means, the world's greatest power has failed to subdue a country with a fragmented economy that has been sanctioned for decades. That is the uncomfortable question.

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