Strait of Hormuz: open, closed or quantum? Brent at $72 as reserves fall

Strait of Hormuz: open, closed or quantum? Brent at $72 as reserves fall

For weeks the Strait of Hormuz has been a quantum joke: open and closed at the same time, depending on who you ask. Maritime traffic tracking data show that only 8% of the usual flow is passing through, yet Brent crude is trading at $72, far from the panic a total blockade would trigger. What is really going on?

The shipping traffic paradox

Independent monitors such as HormuzTracking and HormuzStraitMonitor are recording a drastic drop in the number of tankers crossing the strait. Barely 8% of normal levels, according to the most optimistic figures. Yet the price of a barrel has not soared. The explanation is that the crude that is flowing does not come from Iranian or Saudi wells: strategic reserves, mainly those of the United States, are being drawn on instead. US crude reserves (SPR) have fallen to 331.19 million barrels, 17.67% less than a year ago, and they keep declining week after week.

The dossier game

The strait operates as a political filter: closed for some, open for others. Those with ties to the Trump administration or allied interests get through; the rest do not. This selectivity explains why there is no formal blockade, but there is a de facto restriction that is draining strategic reserves. The irony is that the market has priced it in: Brent, seeing no total interruption, remains stable. But if pressure intensifies in September, as some sources suggest, the crisis could be a big one.

What to expect

As long as the game of discretionary permits continues, oil demand will be covered from reserves. The problem is that those reserves are not infinite. With the US SPR losing 2.66% per week, the margin is narrowing. The question is not whether Hormuz is open or closed, but how long the reserves will hold before the price reflects reality.