Robert Pape: US strategic defeat in Iran worse than Vietnam

Robert Pape: "The United States has suffered in Iran its worst strategic defeat since Vietnam"

Imagine a toll: one euro for every barrel of oil crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has imposed it de facto. With 135 tankers a day, the bill comes to around two million euros per ship daily. The technology that makes it possible is not an aircraft carrier, but low-cost drones against which there is no economic defense. Professor Robert Pape, of the University of Chicago, calls it "the worst strategic defeat of the United States since Vietnam." And it is no exaggeration.

The humiliation in the Strait of Hormuz

The US military operation in Iran, designed to bring the regime to its knees, has ended in a stalemate. Pape argues that, despite overwhelming military force, Washington has been unable to control either the course of the conflict or its outcomes. The Strait of Hormuz, the transit route for 20% of the world's crude oil, is now under Iranian control. It used to be free; now it costs money. And the US Navy's ability to respond to drone swarms remains an unsolved problem.

Defeat or a self-serving narrative?

Not everyone accepts Pape's diagnosis. Some analysts downplay what peine: they point out that previous operations in Afghanistan or Iraq were similar defeats, or that the real loser is not the United States but the West's capacity for power projection. Others go further and argue that the outcome benefits China, which has watched its strategic rival wear itself down without firing a shot. The history of relations between Beijing and Washington in Asia—Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan—shows a pattern: every time the United States gets entangled in the Middle East, China gains ground.

The economic cost and the energy bill

The economic impact is already being felt. Iranian control of the strait is driving up oil prices and threatens a global energy crisis. Importing countries, Spain included, will see their bills soar. Long-haul travel could become a luxury, and dependence on fossil fuels becomes an Achilles' heel. Meanwhile, in the United States, financial volatility has triggered massive speculative moves. Big energy companies and investment funds are rubbing their hands; consumers are not.

The contrast is stark. Pape, from his chair in Chicago, hits the nail on the head: "The US has suffered its worst strategic defeat since Vietnam." But perhaps the most revealing thing is that, this time, the defeat has not been measured in military casualties, but in the loss of control over an essential resource. And once again, it is the ordinary citizen who pays the price.