Stock Market Crash Prediction: 686 Days Waiting for October

The Great Stock Market Crash Has Been Imminent for 686 Days

The warning is stark: sell stocks, cryptocurrencies, stamps, and even forests before May, and seek refuge in cash and ten-year German bonds. The advisor is not a platinum guru but a self-proclaimed prophet, as presented by those launching the prediction. The problem is that the date has passed by two years. October is gone, Trump won the election, and the S&P 500 has hit new highs again. The correction, awaited with the same faith as the 2007 housing bubble burst, still has not appeared.

The Thesis: Sell Everything Before May and Await the Crash

The original argument leaves no room for doubt. It is not just about stocks: also cryptocurrencies, stamps, forests, and any asset held in a portfolio. The recommendation is to unwind positions and park money in liquidity and ten-year German public debt, the classic safe haven when antiestéticar strikes. The deadline: May. The reason: a crash around the corner.

The comparison with 2007 housing appears early. If the real estate cycle serves as a compass, we would be on the threshold of a deep correction, though no one dares to specify how or when. The pessimistic consensus relies on the economy working in cycles and this one having stretched too long. The question is not if it will come, but how much it will hurt.

Warren Buffett Sells, the Vocational Graduate Buys

The most repeated argument has a name: Warren Buffett. The Omaha investor has been selling everything he can and staying in cash, as noted in the discussion. Opposite him, the small investor buying with his bonus. The rhetorical question asks itself: who will be right? The answer, as always, will be given by time.

But pessimism is not unanimous. Some argue that the S&P 500 is not expensive, slightly above its historical average, and that excluding the seven big tech companies, the rest of the index trades cheaply by historical P/E ratio. The problem, they argue, is novices who see the vertical chart and conclude it must fall without evaluating the index as a whole.

Real Estate: The Taboo Asset That Withstands Everything

In a real estate forum, the lack of mention of property becomes a reproach. And the answer is uncomfortable: the sector holds up. Prices are abusive, but there is brutal demand for supply that is barely built. The thesis that real estate will rise while the stock market plunges gains trinc among those waiting years for a recession that never comes.

Frustration is palpable. Some admit wanting a recession and waiting for years without success. The correction pending since 2019 has become a curse: each day passing without a crash means, according to this view, a worse recession when it finally arrives.

Geopolitics as Catalyst: Trump, Ukraine, and the Next Black Swan

Trump's return to the White House is read as a factor delaying the crash, at least temporarily. Until next October, nothing. But others point out that supply has stabilized after the disruption from the war in Ukraine, which is nearing an end. Current calm is, paradoxically, the calm before the storm.

Some go further, expecting an event of 9/11 or pandemic level, something that flips several constants at once. Black swan theory mixes with cycle analysis, resulting in a cocktail where anything can happen and nothing can be predicted. History, they say, does not predict the future more than folk weather signs predict actual weather.

Cash: The Asset Crushed by Inflation

Against seeking refuge in liquidity, the opposite warning arises: those caught holding savings in cash will be crushed. The hypothesis of sustained 10% annual inflation, with minimum wage and public payroll hikes, would dilute the value of any cash cushion. Real estate, again, as a real safe haven.

The million-dollar question is what happens if the bank paying benefits goes bankrupt. The answer, half joking half serious, is that money matters less and weapons are needed. The apocalyptic scenario is touched upon with irony but leaves an uncomfortable residue: trust in the financial system is not infinite.

The Crash That Never Comes: 686 Days of Waiting

The evolution of the discussion is that of a recycled prophecy. First May. Then October. After the US elections, until next October, then nothing. Each date passing without a crash becomes a new future date. The correction is always around the corner, but the corner moves away.

Meanwhile, the market keeps rising. Those who bought years ago have no margin to consider selling. Those waiting for the drop to enter keep waiting. And the overarching question remains: is this time the right one? Or the wrong one? The answer, with reservations, is that no one knows. Not even the prophets.