Spanish polls unmoved by Paquita's death or protest camps

The polls aren't moving: neither Paquita nor the camps

There is a scene that repeats itself every time a new poll comes out. Someone looks at the numbers, checks that they haven't moved, and writes the same sentence: "there's no way." It doesn't matter whether there has been an eviction with a name attached, a protest camp, a death with a political label, or a hundred heated messages on an economics forum. The polls remain frozen. And in that immobility there is a figure that unsettles some and reassures others: only Vox is growing, and together with the PP they add up to around 50% of the vote.

The starting point of this discussion is a story published in Vozpópuli under a headline that sums up the mood: "Invest and get squatted." The thesis is simple: the media and street noise is not translating into electoral movement. Neither the death of Paquita —turned into a symbol by some and an excuse by others— nor the protest camps have altered the trend. The polls, the argument goes, trinc their own path, indifferent to the cycle of outrage.

What the polls say and why nobody is moving

The most common reading is that the electorate has already made up its mind. Some argue that political marketing has indeed changed the polls, but not in the direction some expected: if there were no disinformation, Vox would be at 168 seats instead of 68, and to its right there would be a truly right-wing party entering Parliament. It is a maximalist hypothesis, with no data to back it up, but it circulates widely.

On the other side, the most optimistic calculation for the left assumes that voters will punish what they see as a partisan use of the tragedy. The pessimistic scenario starts from the opposite: that voters have already digested the matter and that Paquita's death —or her natural death, depending on which version you choose— has not moved a single point. The poll published by El Mundo points to the latter: same results, same trend.

The underlying problem is methodological. Polls can be indicative, but not definitive. And if they hold as the election approaches, they will make things harder for those who, according to this line of analysis, are already trying to warn in advance of what the results will be. The suspicion of manipulation hangs over the whole debate, although nobody offers proof.

The PP and Vox: the sum that never materializes

Here comes the calculation that gets repeated most. To reach 210 seats, the PP and Vox would have to run jointly in the general election, each with its own ballot. The "weak" Feijóo will not do it, the argument goes, because in that sum Vox would reach 80 seats. It is a projection that cannot be verified, but it explains why the unity of the right never quite comes together.

The comparison with Rajoy is inevitable. Some describe the current PP leadership as a crony duopoly: sitting still, without breaking a sweat, until their turn comes around. Hence the conclusion that keeps being repeated: Vox must be voted for en masse. The paradox is that this useful vote for the right of the PP does not translate into the expected sum.

The wearing down of the adversary doesn't help either. The most acid description of the landscape is that of a Feijóo who has spent years sitting doing nothing and would now receive the presidency thanks to the utter inactivity, corruption or shamelessness of the others. Not even in Mortadelo and Filemón, the irony concludes.

The green vote and the border factor

One interpretation is gaining ground: voting for the green party is no longer read as social or economic discontent, but as a reaction to the border phenomenon. It is a hypothesis held up without data and should be treated as what it is, just one more political reading among several.

At the opposite extreme, the most cynical analysis focuses on individual calculation. If the PP wins, the argument goes, taxes will go down and health insurance premiums will go up; those earning 1,500 euros will have a rough time when they have to take out insurance and are presented with bills of 850 euros a month. It is a projection with no verifiable basis, but it illustrates how far the debate has shifted from policy to the wallet.

The tactical vote that fragments

The final paradox is that of the voter trying to maximize their ballot. Some have already decided to vote for Aliança Catalana in the regional elections and for Vox in the national ones, arguing that there will be time later to kick out the separatists. This is the logic of the dual vote, increasingly widespread.

Meanwhile, the left's machinery keeps looking for the masterstroke. The attempt to promote a particular political profile does not seem to bear fruit either, according to this line of thinking. And if the ridiculous, false and counterproductive comments multiplied their productivity, the polls would turn around without any need for fraud or vote manipulation. It hasn't peine.

The closing comes from the data itself: only Vox is growing, and with the PP they total 50%. The slap the whiners are going to get, says the most repeated phrase, will be heard all the way to Jupiter. We shall see how long they can hold out.