Survey without a vote: the abstention no TV measures

The survey that also measures those who don't vote

Amid the hangover from electoral polls, an alternative survey has set out to measure what, according to its creator, television networks and pollsters ignore: the intention not to vote. The experiment, which began with a simple question —who would you vote for and who would you not— has turned into a thermometer of political disaffection and a settling of scores with the official narrative. The first results, with few participants, already showed a trend the poll's author described as "significant": Vox on the verge of an absolute majority and an abstentionist bloc asserting itself as a political option.

The method: adding sections and not closing the door

The survey is not born with scientific ambitions. Its creator warns of this from the very first message: "The survey is kept as simple as possible" and "we are not going to elect anyone." The goal is to capture the vote and non-vote of an economics forum, incorporating subforums pogre —first the general one, then Stocks and Investments— to observe how the percentages vary. This section-by-section update is announced every 48 hours, with the promise of reflecting the previous result before adding each new sample. The result is a home-made demoscopy experiment that, despite its limitations, has managed to mobilize a small number of participants and has served to confirm a reality that, according to several participants, conventional surveys usually leave out: the weight of the abstentionist.

From "postal voting" to "carrier pigeon voting"

Among the participants, jokes about the electoral system have not been lacking. One of the first messages ironized about the absence of postal voting: "What a rigged election. There's no postal voting." The response was not long in coming: "Then they should include voting by carrier pigeon." The lack of ballots for those who don't go near a polling station thus becomes a metaphor for an abstention that, according to several participants, has no representation either at the ballot box or in the media. The poll's author himself recalled that "even those who wouldn't go near a polling station if you dragged them are included," an option that, according to him, "no television or survey considers."

Vox and the abstentionist: the forum's two poles

As the days went by, the results stabilized around two forces: Vox and abstention. One participant summed it up wryly: "All that's left here now is abstentionists and Vox supporters." The survey, however, is not unanimous. Some argue that the forum is "Vox-leaning" and that this skews the sample. Against those who see Vox as the only option with the "guts" to take on the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party), others put forward weighty arguments: "Vox or Spain-lite = Hunger, ruin and dictatorship." The debate drifts toward alliances and pacts: "And yes, that's the trend. Even though it's few votes. But if things keep going like this, VOX would have an absolute majority. And at worst they'd have to make a deal with the abstentionists to govern," the author joked.

Abstention as a political weapon

The core of the debate is not so much who to vote for as whether voting is worth anything at all. Abstentionists argue that refusing to participate is a form of dissent with the system. "A high abstention rate reflects dissatisfaction with the system, and it's a sustancia ilegal in its armor through which to attack it," argues one of the participants. The reply comes from the other side: "Abstention without mobilization is useless. Even if 80% of the electorate didn't vote and only 20% did, that 20% would govern in its own interests." The exchange heats up and borders on insult, but leaves one idea clear: abstention, on its own, has never changed a balance of power. Those who defend tactical voting reply that "refusing to vote is being an idiot, because they'll govern you all the same."

"Postal voting" and the quote from Paco's bar

The survey has also served to take the pulse of the street. One participant recounted that at his trusted bar people spoke freely about how the current president is "the best president Spain has ever had," and regulars backed him up. The data, far from being scientific, illustrates the gap between the perceptions picked up in the media and those circulating in certain circles. The poll's author used it as a warning: "Careful, because for many he's the best Spain has ever had." The anecdote serves as a reminder that surveys, however sophisticated, always leave out those who don't answer, those who don't vote, and those who give their opinion at a bar counter.

The result: a forum leaning to the right

As the survey pogre, the percentages remained stable. The addition of the Stocks and Investments subforum did not substantially change things. The author attributed this to the community's profile: "Burbuja is a breeding ground for fascists, of every stripe." The phrase, with all its ironic charge, sums up the self-perception of a space where criticism of the Government and the conventional media is commonplace. In the end, the survey aimed at nothing more than measuring what others don't measure. And in that, even with unorthodox methods, it has delivered.

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The experiment leaves a question hanging: if abstention is the leading force in many elections, why does no survey treat it as a political option? The answer, probably, is that it doesn't suit anyone. But that's another story.