Spain's vocational training report highlights 3.5 million youth deficit

Shortage of 3.5 million young people to replace retiring workforce

Spain’s aging population has an uncomfortable labor reality: the cohort of workers over 50 exceeds those under 30 by 3.5 million people. This is the youth deficit identified by the CaixaBank Dualiza and Orkestra Vocational Training Observatory to cover generational replacement in the next ten to fifteen years. Researcher Mónica Moso summarizes it with an image that leaves no room for nuance: “There is a true demographic fire, and we are not putting it out.” The problem is not just how many are missing, but where they are needed and for what roles.

One young worker for every three retirees in key trades

The report estimates that among artisans, skilled industrial and construction workers, there will be one young person for every three older workers retiring. In traditional industry and construction trades, half a million young people are missing; in domestic work, personal care, hospitality, security, and retail, another 414,000. In 2024, the deficit was most pronounced in public administration (over half a million), industry (474,000), and commerce and vehicle repair (367,096).

Sectors with the smallest gap are leisure, culture, and hospitality, precisely where young people prefer to train. The paradox is that there is a surplus of candidates in areas without pending replacement needs, while shortages persist in critical sectors. Dual vocational training appears in the report as a mechanism directly connecting with companies, but it does not resolve the imbalance on its own.

The map of the gap: aged northwest, industries with more vacancies

By region, the mismatch hits the northwest hardest. In Asturias, there are 257 people over 65 for every 100 under 30; Galicia and Castilla y León exceed 220. These are also the communities with the highest depopulation and lowest migration flow, and those that have suffered wildfires. In these areas, replacement in fishing, livestock, agriculture, and forestry agents remains at one young person for every four retirees.

In absolute numbers, the gap concentrates where industry and job supply are highest: Andalucía (551,721), Madrid (473,396), Catalunya (454,896), and Comunidad Valenciana (365,543). The issue is not just a lack of people, but a shortage exactly where economic activity is most intense.

The narrative of replacement clashes with the real market

The discussion quickly shifted to causes. One school of thought argues that the problem is not a lack of young people, but conditions: salaries that do not compete with what the same trade offers outside Spain, impossible experience requirements for beginners, and age filters that exclude those over 45. Some recall that a plasterboard installer once earned 300,000 pesetas effortlessly, whereas today the same job pays nowhere near that amount. The recurring conclusion: if wages do not rise, replacement will not happen.

Another line of analysis points to the pension system as the backdrop. It is argued that the pay-as-you-go model requires a growing base of contributors and that importing foreign workers only delays the problem, because those same workers will eventually retire. The lingering question is whether generational replacement is a birth rate issue, a labor condition issue, or a system design flaw.

The migration route and its limits

The report mentions migration as a rejuvenation factor but notes that the most aged regions receive less inflow. Some argue the solution lies in bringing workers from countries with young populations; counterarguments state that those countries are undergoing their own demographic transitions and that labor integration requires training and time. The experience shared in the debate is mixed: there are cases of newly arrived workers who adapt and learn, and others who leave due to harsh conditions.

The unsettling data point is the 20% youth unemployment rate cited by the researcher: there are young people neither studying nor working, vocational training cycles with unmet demand, and companies unable to find employees. Education emerges as key to leveraging talent and anchoring population to the territory, especially in rural areas. “An aging society is more vulnerable, less innovative, less creative, and more dependent,” Moso concludes.

With these factors, replacing the boomers cannot be solved solely through birth rates or migration separately. Does anyone have a plan other than waiting for the market to raise wages purely due to scarcity?