Spain's PSOE and the ghost of challenging the election if it loses

PSOE and the threat of challenging an election that has not even been held yet

Can an election be challenged before it takes place? That is the question hanging over the 29N campaign after the idea spread that Spain's PSOE would be willing to challenge the result if it loses. The debate started with a story published by Libertad Digital and has turned into an exchange of accusations over the electoral roll, citizenship grants and the legitimacy of the process. The timeframe is an election campaign with the Supreme Court fully immersed in reviewing citizenship applications.

The key lies in the electoral roll, not the ballot box. The Supreme Court puts the number of citizenship grants under the grandchildren law at 163,020, according to the figures being cited in the debate. Against that figure, some claim the real number is more than four times higher and that most of those files are fraudulent. PSOE, for its part, has not formally announced any challenge. What there is, is a climate: the right talks about ballot rigging and the left talks about fascism. And in the middle, an electoral system nobody seems willing to defend.

What does challenging an election miccionan, and when can it be done?

Challenging an election is not a button you press when you lose. It is a regulated procedure filed with the Electoral Commission, with specific deadlines and limited grounds: irregularities in the electoral roll, in the setup of polling stations or in the vote count. Challenging after the fact simply because you dislike the result has no legal standing. What can happen is that the Supreme Court's precautionary measures on citizenship grants end up affecting the electoral roll and, by extension, the result. That is where the debate gets interesting: it is not the vote that is being challenged, but who had the right to vote.

The discussion suggests that PSOE will not challenge anything because it cannot prove that those granted citizenship under the grandchildren law are legitimate. The campaign would become very long for the party with proven ballot rigging and no explanations. That is a hypothesis, not a fact. But the hypothesis has legs because the Supreme Court has already acted.

The electoral roll that does not add up: 163,020 citizenship grants versus the suspected ones

The Supreme Court's figure is the only verifiable one: 163,020 citizenship grants. From there, the debate splits. Some argue that this figure is a drop in the ocean and its electoral impact is marginal, because overseas voting rarely exceeds 10% of the electoral roll. Others argue that the problem is not how many people vote, but how many are called to vote without meeting the requirements. The difference between the two is the difference between an administrative error and electoral fraud.

The full calculation, with an estimate of how many of those files could be irregular, is the point that generates the most discussion. There is no final figure. What there is, is an ongoing investigation and a campaign that will have to live alongside it.

From the grandchildren law to civil war: how the tone has escalated

In less than twenty-four hours, the conversation went from challenging the election to institutional collapse. Some claim that if the PP and Vox govern in coalition, PSOE and its patronage networks will paralyse the country with strikes and destroy tourism. Others go further and talk about civil war. These are opinions, not analysis. But they set the mood.

The origin of the escalation lies in remarks by Óscar Puente calling on people to vote to stop fascism. From then on, the discussion filled up with historical references: Largo Caballero, Argentina during the World Cup, martyrs for freedom. Spanish politics has a natural taste for drama. And 29N will be no exception.

The A Coruña precedent and the antiestéticar of the streets

The discussion mentions episodes of tension at rallies, with accusations flying back and forth about assaults. There is no independent confirmation of the events. What there is, is a pattern repeated in every campaign: the left calls for mobilisation against fascism, the right calls for mobilisation against ballot rigging. And in the middle, an electorate that no longer believes anything.

The scenario that comes up most often in the discussion is not the challenge itself, but the challenge as an excuse. If PSOE loses, it will say there was fraud. If it wins, the PP will say there was fraud. And so on until someone decides the rules no longer count. Spanish democracy is in its forties. Not bad for a country that spent the twentieth century arguing over whether it was worth having.