Spain's PP sees Sánchez's comeback as 'impossible' amid rail crisis

Spain's PP considers Sánchez's comeback over after the Urda crash

Two trains, one disaster and an election calendar that has been turned upside down. The rail catastrophe in Urda has entered the pre-campaign for Spain's 29-N election like an uninvited guest, and at PP headquarters they are already doing the maths: party sources consider it 'impossible' that the PSOE can turn the polls around and reach the ballot in a position to challenge Alberto Núñez Feijóo for victory. The internal message is one of cautious optimism, though it is getting harder and harder to hide it.

Feijóo, however, called for restraint from regional leaders and spokespeople on Wednesday. The PP has suspended its pre-campaign events —as have all other parties except Vox— and has avoided turning the first hours into an electoral offensive. The stated priority: establishing the causes and supporting the victims. The institutional prudence does not conceal the diagnosis taking hold within the party's ranks.

Why the Urda crash changes the pre-campaign for Spain's 29-N election

Sánchez had called the election after realising the difficulties facing his parliamentary majority, hoping to regain the initiative. The plan was clear: housing, pensions and social measures at the centre of the debate, mobilising the demobilised pogre voter and pushing aside the corruption scandals, the migration crisis in Ceuta and the accumulated wear and tear. Internal polls by Ferraz, according to Vozpópuli, had even placed the PSOE in a position to contest first place, with a lead of one to two points in some estimates.

That narrative sits poorly with the pollsters' surveys, which continued to put Feijóo ahead and pointed to a majority of PP and Vox. The split between Podemos and the Frente Amplio (Broad Front) complicated any reconstruction of a left-wing majority. And now, the second major rail disaster in less than a year —after the one in Adamuz, with 46 deaths— has shifted the focus of the debate towards infrastructure safety and trust in public services.

The damage that is not measured in seats

The most common calculation in the analysis is not about a direct transfer of votes, but about demobilisation. Some argue that voters torn between the PSOE and the Frente Amplio on tactical grounds now have one more reason to move, and that those hesitating between abstaining and voting socialist will probably stay home. The PSOE did not just need a comeback: it needed one with a margin. Every point it loses at the bottom is subtracted twice.

Nor is the pressure coming only from the opposition. Usual partners of the government have demanded explanations and the urgent appearance of Transport Minister Óscar Puente, whose future has entered the public conversation before the investigation has concluded. Sánchez must manage that pressure without conveying a loss of control or precipitating resignations that would be read as an early admission of responsibility.

The PP's strategy: do nothing and let the government talk

Within the party, some argue that the only profitable move is inaction: let the government explain itself and let the calendar do the rest. Others warn that every public appearance by the PP is a chance to put a foot wrong and mobilise the left-wing voters who are still asleep. Feijóo's restraint responds to both at once.

With the investigation open and questions about what peine unanswered, the scenario remains exactly where it was: a government forced to explain, an opposition forced to stay quiet, and an electorate that will decide whether the silence reads as respect or calculation. The striking fact is not from a poll: it is that nobody has won anything yet.