Spain's DANA floods and the national emergency that was never declared

Spain's DANA floods and the national emergency that was never declared

On 29 October 2024, the DANA (a high-altitude isolated depression) devastated eastern Spain. AEMET issued four alerts and the Generalitat Valenciana kept its warning in place until 20:11. Pedro Sánchez's government did not declare a national emergency. The PP argues it should have done so on «Tuesday evening»; Moncloa responds that the responsibility lay with the regional government. In between, a striking figure: France offered 250 firefighters and Marlaska replied «thank you, but they are not needed right now».

What AEMET said and what the Élysée said

The state weather agency issued four warnings. None, according to the account circulating on the forum, anticipated the scale of the disaster. The French AROME-HD system detected in the early hours of the 29th «rainfall of 400 litres per square metre and flash flooding that could endanger life». The final records show up to 450 litres at the worst moments.

Some defend AEMET, arguing it complied with standardised messages in a universal format. Against that, the accusation that it fell short: 150 millimetres versus the actual 450. The government spokesperson appeared at Moncloa after four alerts and warned of nothing, according to the critical version.

The French help that never materialised

France says it offered 250 firefighters. The Interior Ministry's response, according to published reports, was a «thank you, but they are not needed right now». The figure intersects with another: the Generalitat argues that if the government perceived a very high risk, it should have declared a national emergency. Several affected regions, fatalities in three of them. Reason enough, the PP maintains, to take command.

While 300,000 people in Valencia were still mired in mud, the BOE (Spain's official state gazette) published the takeover of RTVE as an «urgent measure». The timing did not go unnoticed.

What the PP-run regions did

Helicopters, divers, rescue dogs, psychologists, hospitals and shelters. The regions governed by the PP threw themselves into helping Valencia, according to the account that prevails in the discussion. Up to 190 personnel in Letur, Castilla-La Mancha, with three canine units, searching for five missing people. The Generalitat proposed housing discharged patients in hotels and tourist apartments due to the risk of hospital collapse.

In parallel, the recurring criticism: Almeida was unable to send a message to Mazón to warn him of the danger. Politics as a bargaining chip.

The Ebro precedent nobody mentions

In 2015, with the Ebro in flood, Sánchez denounced Rajoy's «inaction» and his «lack of coordination» with the regions. He asked him to «pull on his boots, wade into the mud and talk» to those affected. «What the hell has to happen for Rajoy to leave La Moncloa and get into the mud?», he said at the time. Nine years later, the question is being turned back on him.

The government admits the response «is not sufficient» but rules out a state of alarm. The PP insists there is «no time limit» for declaring the emergency and that there is still «time», however late.

The calculation nobody closes

The comparison between what AROME-HD predicted and what AEMET published yields a surprising difference. The full breakdown, alert by alert, leaves a margin that explains why the Generalitat kept its warning until 20:11 and why municipalities did not evacuate sooner.

How many of the dead would have survived with an alert at 15:00?