King proposes Feijóo: 172 votes vs 159

King proposes Feijóo with 172 supports against Sánchez's 159

The Article 99 constitutional consultation round has yielded a result that, according to calculations circulating in the debate, admits no shortcuts: the King has proposed Alberto Núñez Feijóo as candidate for investiture because he is the aspirant gathering more votes in this constitutional procedure, 172 versus 159. Four political groups did not attend to speak with the Head of State. And that detail, which seems minor, decides who sits first on the investiture bench.

The premise is simple to state but complicated to digest: Article 99 requires representatives designated by political groups to attend the consultation round to inform the monarch whom they support. It is not enough for the aspirant to claim they have the votes. It is not enough for parties to have announced it in the press. The only valid path is that they go and say so. If they do not go, they do not count.

Who attended the consultation round and who did not

The numbers held by the Royal Household are what they are. Feijóo gathers 172 votes from parties whose leaders expressed their preference for him to the King: PP, VOX, UPN and Coalición Canaria. Sánchez gathers 159 from PSOE, Sumar, PNV and BNG. The difference is thirteen votes. And that difference rests precisely on the fact that ERC, Junts and Bildu did not set foot in La Zarzuela.

Some argue that the King lacks constitutional competence to decide who goes to investiture, claiming that would be proper of a medieval monarchy. This argument relies on the phrase "through the President of the Congress" in Article 99, turning the monarch into a notary endorsing what reaches him. Others reply that "through" describes the transmission vehicle, not the source: the King communicates to the President of the Congress whom he proposes, not vice versa.

The discussion is not trivial. If the President of the Congress could transmit group support to the King without them attending, the consultation round would be a decorative formality. If he cannot, the round is the real filter. And on this occasion, the filter has excluded the partners Sánchez needs.

The second round and the problem of the CERA Madrid seat

The scenario emerging is uncomfortable for the caretaker government. If Feijóo fails in the investiture, a second consultation round opens. And in that second round, if ERC, Junts and Bildu still do not attend, the math remains exactly the same: 172 versus 159. The candidate is again Feijóo, despite having already lost an investiture.

That is the key to why the PSOE fights tooth and nail for the CERA Madrid seat at the Supreme Court, according to arguments sustained in the debate. With that seat, the arithmetic changes: Junts would not need to see the King, though ERC and Bildu would. And it is much easier for ERC and Bildu to go to La Zarzuela than Junts. The difference between 172 and 159 hangs on one seat.

The paradox is that the constitutional procedure turns independentist parties into involuntary arbiters of the investiture. Their absence benefits Feijóo. Their presence, if it occurs, could flip the script. Meanwhile, the official narrative insists everything is open to interpretation.

The 2016 precedent and why it does not serve as a manual

It has been recalled that in 2016 Bildu and other parties also did not meet with the King yet voted in Congress. True. But then there were no two aspirants with alternative majorities. Rajoy declined to be a candidate and the arithmetic admitted no doubts. Now there are two possible majorities and a procedure that, for the first time, forces a choice between them before the vote.

The novelty is not that someone does not go to see the King. The novelty is that non-attendance has direct consequences on who is proposed. This circumstance had never occurred before: two aspirants, two majorities, and a procedure deciding which one is tested first.

The result, as of this discussion, is that Feijóo will be the first candidate. And if he fails, the second round reproduces the same picture. The most repeated prediction is that there will be new elections. The bet is risky, but the numbers held by the Royal Household leave little room for imagination.