Spain's CIS under suspicion: measuring or manipulating?
Tezanos' CIS, repeatedly accused of manipulation, was the most accurate pollster in Spain's 2023 election. Why does nobody apologize when it gets it right? Data and context.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain's CIS under suspicion: measuring or manipulating?
The polls of Spain's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS, the state-run sociological research institute) led by José Félix Tezanos have been under fire for years. Accused of cooking the data in favor of the PSOE, the CIS has become the favorite target of the right-wing media. But the numbers from the 23J election tell a different story.
In July 2023, the CIS flash poll predicted 32.2% for the PSOE and 30.8% for the PP. The actual result was 31.7% and 33.1% respectively. The margin of error was within reasonable bounds, and the CIS was the poll that came closest to the final result, as even some critics acknowledge. Yet the manipulation narrative persists.
The Indra ghost
Behind the skepticism lurks the name of Indra, the tech company that manages the electoral count. The most conspiratorial claim that Indra "moves the little hand" and that the CIS merely anticipates the fraud. A claim that does not stand up to the data: the CIS takes no part in the count, and its estimates are based on surveys, not on official tallies.
Those who stay silent when it gets it right
It is striking that when the CIS fails, it is accused of bias; when it gets it right, the silence is deafening. In 2021, another CIS prediction that caused hilarity turned out to be the most accurate. "I don't recall anyone apologizing," analysts quip. The double standard erodes the credibility of the criticism.
The debate about the CIS is not technical, it is political. As long as no evidence of manipulation is provided, the data will remain what they are: estimates with a margin of error. Everything else is noise.
Related discussions in the forum
The polls of Spain's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS, the state-run sociological research institute) led by José Félix Tezanos have been under fire for years. Accused of cooking the data in favor of the PSOE, the CIS has become the favorite target of the right-wing media. But the numbers from the 23J election tell a different story.
In July 2023, the CIS flash poll predicted 32.2% for the PSOE and 30.8% for the PP. The actual result was 31.7% and 33.1% respectively. The margin of error was within reasonable bounds, and the CIS was the poll that came closest to the final result, as even some critics acknowledge. Yet the manipulation narrative persists.
The Indra ghost
Behind the skepticism lurks the name of Indra, the tech company that manages the electoral count. The most conspiratorial claim that Indra "moves the little hand" and that the CIS merely anticipates the fraud. A claim that does not stand up to the data: the CIS takes no part in the count, and its estimates are based on surveys, not on official tallies.
Those who stay silent when it gets it right
It is striking that when the CIS fails, it is accused of bias; when it gets it right, the silence is deafening. In 2021, another CIS prediction that caused hilarity turned out to be the most accurate. "I don't recall anyone apologizing," analysts quip. The double standard erodes the credibility of the criticism.
The debate about the CIS is not technical, it is political. As long as no evidence of manipulation is provided, the data will remain what they are: estimates with a margin of error. Everything else is noise.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (21 replies).
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