Spain: polls show Sánchez losing 100 seats
New polls suggest Spain's PM Sánchez could lose 100 seats, contradicting optimistic projections from the CIS. Census manipulation and fast-tracked nationalisations are the main suspicions.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Sánchez slumps: polls leave him 100 seats short
The latest electoral projections put Spain's PSOE in free fall, costing the party around a hundred seats, according to sources close to the polling firm. The figure, which some put at 72 seats, clashes head-on with data from the CIS (Spain's official statistics institute), which still keep the prime minister within reach of an absolute majority. Scepticism about the reliability of the count is growing as the election approaches. The combination of Correos and Indra as managers of postal voting and the vote count raises doubts about the cleanliness of the process. Added to this is the possible strategy of fast-tracking the nationalisation of immigrants to swell the electoral roll, a measure the Government is said to have accelerated in recent months.
In this context, critics see the Democratic Memory Law as a tool to divide and mobilise the left, rather than an exercise in reconciliation. The opposition, considered weak and fragmented, fails to capitalise on the discontent. What about the human factor? Some analysts point out that the prime minister's charisma and antiestéticar of a return to a "black-and-white Spain" could mobilise older female voters, colloquially known as the "charo vote". An unpredictable element in an already volatile scenario.
With these ingredients, distrust in the electoral system has reached unprecedented levels. The question is not only how many seats the PSOE will lose, but whether those who control the count will allow the result to reflect the will of the people.
The latest electoral projections put Spain's PSOE in free fall, costing the party around a hundred seats, according to sources close to the polling firm. The figure, which some put at 72 seats, clashes head-on with data from the CIS (Spain's official statistics institute), which still keep the prime minister within reach of an absolute majority. Scepticism about the reliability of the count is growing as the election approaches. The combination of Correos and Indra as managers of postal voting and the vote count raises doubts about the cleanliness of the process. Added to this is the possible strategy of fast-tracking the nationalisation of immigrants to swell the electoral roll, a measure the Government is said to have accelerated in recent months.
In this context, critics see the Democratic Memory Law as a tool to divide and mobilise the left, rather than an exercise in reconciliation. The opposition, considered weak and fragmented, fails to capitalise on the discontent. What about the human factor? Some analysts point out that the prime minister's charisma and antiestéticar of a return to a "black-and-white Spain" could mobilise older female voters, colloquially known as the "charo vote". An unpredictable element in an already volatile scenario.
With these ingredients, distrust in the electoral system has reached unprecedented levels. The question is not only how many seats the PSOE will lose, but whether those who control the count will allow the result to reflect the will of the people.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (76 replies).
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