A scene repeats itself in any apartment block in a Spanish city: couples in their thirties with a dog, a mortgage and no intention of having children. It's not an impression. The data backs it up. In 2024, only 25% of Spanish households had at least one child under 18, the lowest level in the entire historical series that began in 2006. A decade ago that percentage was 30%. The five-point drop exceeds that of the European Union average, where the ratio is already more dramatic: only 24% of households have children.
The consequence is arithmetic. Spain is entering a demographic winter and the system that sustains pensions and the welfare state rests on an ever-narrower base. Future generations are smaller while the rest of the population ages.
Fewer households with children and fewer children per household
Eurostat estimates that there are 19.5 million households in Spain. Of these, just under five million have children and 14.6 million do not. There are more households than a decade ago (18.3 million) because those without children have grown by 13%, while those with children have fallen by 8%. There are increasingly fewer households with children and also fewer children per household.
Of the households with minors, just over half (2.6 million) have one; 35% (1.7 million) have two; and in the remaining 11%, around half a million, there are three or more. Half of the households with children have only one, a pattern repeated in all EU countries except the Netherlands, where two-child households predominate.
The unstoppable rise of childless households
The composition of family units has changed. Of the 19.5 million households, 29% are adults living alone. A decade ago, single-person households without children represented only 25%. Another 21% are couples without children. And households of two or more adults who are not a couple now represent 25%, the same as households with children.
Some countries have even lower rates: Finland (18%), Lithuania (20%), Germany (20%) and the Netherlands (22%). Others maintain more than 25% of households with children, such as Slovenia, Ireland, Cyprus or the Czech Republic. But the decline is pogre in practically all member states, except the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Greece.
Why are fewer children had in Spain?
The causes cited are well known: labour market conditions, housing prices and changes in personal and professional priorities. The result is a youth that delays emancipation and, with it, motherhood and fatherhood.
In the deeper analysis there are discrepancies. One school holds that the problem is material: wages that do not allow independence, inaccessible housing and taxes that strangle disposable income. Another points to cultural and incentive factors: the widespread use of reliable contraceptives, the mass incorporation of women into the labour market and a legal framework that, according to this diagnosis, penalises family formation. Some point directly to the political agenda and what they describe as social engineering. And there are those who recall that birth rates are falling throughout the developed world, including countries without such policies.
The future of the welfare state at risk
Among the consequences, the most cited is the sustainability of the pension system. Fewer births today miccionan fewer contributors tomorrow and a greater burden on those of working age. The circle closes itself.
Some see the glass half full: fewer people means less pressure on housing, public services and resources. This is the argument of those who defend that the culture of leisure and automation will reduce the need for mass labour. On the other side, the antiestéticar that demographic replacement will not come through birth rates but through immigration, with the social debate that entails.
The disconcerting fact is not the 25%. It is that in 2006, when the series began, that percentage was notably higher and no one considered it an anomaly. Now it is the exception.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
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