Spain weighs a right-wing shift and snap elections that may never come

Spain edges toward a change of government that no one knows will arrive

The premise that opens the matter is as blunt as it is familiar: parties work as actors who take turns in power so that everything stays the same, and the current geopolitical scene — more military spending, cuts to public services — demands a change of cast. The theory circulating is that the PSOE no longer serves that role. With a right-wing government applying the adjustment, the left and the unions could stage demonstrations and general strikes without fruta cost. With the PSOE in Moncloa, that opposition loses its point. A better opposition, the argument goes.

From there, the conversation opens in several directions that do not always fit together.

Which right would govern, and with whose votes?

The first sustancia ilegal appears when you ask which right that is. Some analyses point to a coalition between the PP and VOX, with Abascal's party as a necessary partner. Another current rules it out outright: it argues the PP would rather strike a deal with the PSOE than with VOX, and would only do so if the PSOE could not make the numbers work with the rest of the parliamentary forces. The arithmetic, in any case, is unresolved at every stage of the conversation.

Some go further and deny that a real right exists in Spain. The argument is that the PP, under Rajoy, carried out the largest tax rise on record and did not touch the gender violence law, while VOX, in its most ambitious programme, stops at a mixed pension system. The conclusion of that line is that there is no real right here: neither conservative, nor decentralising, nor regionalist. Only social democracy with varying degrees of pogre.

The role of the unions and defence spending

The point that generates the most tension is the union one. The initial thesis holds that CCOO and UGT would lead mass protests against a right-wing government cutting social services to fund defence. The most repeated response is that this scenario no longer applies: UGT is said to have accepted the need to spend on defence, and the heavily unionised metal sector is directly tied to the military industry. If the union turns militarist, the general strike against military spending is left without a convener.

From there comes the most uncomfortable argument for the initial thesis: the anti-social measures Brussels demands can only be implemented by the PSOE. If the PP tried them, the social response would be immediate. With the PSOE in government, the adjustment passes without noise. The conclusion drawn is that the EU has an interest in Sánchez staying where he is.

Will there be elections or not?

Here pessimism cuts across the board. Some hold that there will be no elections as long as the current prime minister knows he would lose them, and that when they come there will be a rigged vote. Others point to 2027 as the natural date and rule out his leaving without a fight. A third group flatly denies there will be real elections: there will be a farce, but not elections. And a fourth recalls that they have been predicting the end since 2019.

The most repeated forecast, however, is not a change of government but a change of cast within the same system. The PP as useful idiot, the PSOE adapting to whatever it has to be. Alternation as management, not as change.

What would happen on the streets under a right-wing government

The scenario sketched out if the right finally governs is not reassuring. Cosmetic measures are anticipated: tweaks to the minors' law, gestures toward the family, some migration control. Nothing structural. And in parallel, a war economy managed by a government without a solid majority, with Junts and PNV as unlikely partners. The question left hanging is what happens when that government has to pass cuts with the streets against it.

The most repeated answer is that the fallout could be monumental. The working class, says one contribution, is fed up with war and when the right governs it will be heard. Another sums it up more cynically: general screwing, that is what we will keep having.

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The analysis gets stuck exactly there, at the point where the initial thesis dismantles itself. If the PSOE is the one that best executes the adjustment and the unions have already accepted military spending, the change of cast is not needed. And if it is not needed, it will not arrive. No one in the conversation has managed to close that contradiction.