Sánchez Decides in 72 Hours Whether to Call Early Elections in Spain

Sánchez has 72 hours to decide whether to call early elections

Congress rejected the housing decrees, leaving the Government without the necessary majority. This was the trigger. From there, Pedro Sánchez has granted himself a weekend — some 72 hours — to decide whether to call early general elections, with the answer due on Monday. Sumar, the junior coalition partner, says it is ready "for whatever comes" and has accelerated a meeting for this weekend in case the early election is confirmed.

There is a detail that no one misses. The last time the president locked himself away to think, he took five days, not three, and from that parenthesis came a letter to the citizens that is still cited as a manual of the genre. Now the deadline is half that. The question is no longer whether he has written, but what backdrop he is using.

Why three days and not five like last time?

The format is repeated, the duration is not. At the start of the debate, the reading imposed is that the president does not improvise: every day of silence has a function. The reference to the previous reflection is constant, and suspicion is built upon it that this weekend is not dedicated to doubting but to preparing the ground. The dominant hypothesis, without any evidence to support it, is that on Monday there will be an announcement with the polish of a letter and a tone of victimhood, and that the real decision has already been made.

Against this, another part of the analysis argues the exact opposite: that such a short deadline indicates precisely that the decision was made beforehand and only the timing was missing. 72 hours are few to mount anything serious and many to let the noise pass. The doubt, in any case, is not resolved until Monday.

Why is he watching the weekend demonstrations so much?

There are street calls this weekend, and that is the key for anyone observing the matter coldly. The most repeated thesis is that the president wants to measure turnout before making a move: if the response is massive, calling an election makes sense; if it is four cats, better to wait. It is not an unreasonable calculation. Social mobilization has been for years the thermometer of the block supporting the Government, and a call with few people would deactivate the narrative of a citizen reaction against the parliamentary blockade.

In parallel, the opposite argument appears, the one that holds that not calling is a miscalculation. If the early election is going to happen, they add, the good window is now and not in six months, because the wear and tear does not improve on its own. The left that waits for a perfect date, it is argued, spends its life waiting.

The dominant scenario: no elections

If one has to bet, the mainstream current is clear: there will be no polls. The reasoning that is repeated most is one of power logic: whoever is inside does not move unless forced, and here no one is forcing. An argument of calendar is added — that if the early election comes, it will be later, towards autumn — and another more veteran one: the president chains himself to La Moncloa before abandoning it. In this reading, the weekend is not a doubt but a staging, and Monday will not bring a call but a new chapter of narrative.

Added to this are the suspicions, never confirmed, about why he takes those days. A part of those trinc the matter claims that the parenthesis serves to cover other fronts — some mention Ceuta or the judicial matters of the entourage — and that Monday's letter will once again present the president as a victim of the opposition. These are claims without proven backing, launched in the heat of conversation and not verified.

The housing decrees and the thermometer of evictions

The origin of everything lies in Congress. The housing decrees fell and with them the electoral scenario peine. In this context, housing functions as a permanent campaign topic, and cases of eviction occupy central minutes of the schedule. In a special program on TVE, the case of a 60-year-old woman was aired who is being evicted in 15 days and who receives 500 euros in aid for those over 52, with panelists asking that she be given an apartment. The matter ceases to be a statistic and becomes a story with a protagonist.

It is there where the political calculation complicates, because an early election with housing burning benefits some and sinks others depending on whom the focus points to.

The opposition and the background noise

The scenario is completed with the opposition. It is recalled that other figures from the party have demanded elections on other occasions, and with less reason, and that memory plays against the vertigo. The internal doubt of the rival also appears: some hold that an early election favors the president because it avoids him facing up to certain names. And yet, the same analysis corrects itself: what he has in front of him does not inspire confidence in his own electorate either.

Meanwhile, the question mark remains open. It is enough to take a look at the last messages of the weekend: one asks if he has eaten, another wonders if he is well. Irony is the only way to speak of something that is not known.