Spain loses 277,560 Romanians in a decade of return

Spain loses 277,560 Romanians: 'It's no longer worth living here'

The Romanian community was Spain's largest foreign colony. Today, its census has shrunk by 277,560 people in a single decade, and the counters at Tarom in Terminal 1 of Barajas have become the fixed image of return. Those packing suitcases for Bucharest do not speak of nostalgia: they speak of rents, three-month contracts, and a paycheck that runs out before the month ends. 'It has become very expensive to live here; it is no longer worth it,' says a passenger in her forties before boarding. This phrase, repeated in other words, summarizes a diagnosis that several debate participants take for granted: those who leave are usually those who were working.

From 833,764 to 556,206 Romanians registered in Spain

In 2012, Romania was, by far, the country of origin for immigration in Spain: 833,764 registered people, and probably more than a million including those working without registration. A decade later, INE data puts the figure at 556,204. That is 277,560 fewer, equivalent to emptying a provincial capital. This is not a cyclical peak: the series has been falling year after year since then.

The consequences are already noticeable where this labor force was most valued. 'It is increasingly difficult to find first-class craftsmen from my country,' admits a renovation business owner of Romanian origin settled in Spain. A horticultural company in the north that recruits through an agency in Romania points to the same bottleneck for harvest campaigns, which last about three months.

Why do Romanians no longer consider it profitable to live in Spain?

Because the cost of living has risen faster than the salaries of the niche to which much of this labor force has access. The most repeated testimony among those leaving is that of temporariness: with the ERTE (temporary employment regulation files), hospitality hired for a few months, paying 800 euros for a full shift, and then letting the worker go. That, if there was a contract.

Another similar case: a 41-year-old woman who spent 14 years as a domestic employee in Madrid returned to her country with her partner and, with her savings, bought a house and started a business. In Romania, energy costs weigh less —many homes are heated with wood stoves— and that also enters the equation. A Romanian neighbor who left days before March 2020 even worked on Sundays; he said that, as a Jehovah's Witness, he did not believe in the Sabbath. He is no longer here.

Romanian convergence and the argument that qualifies it

Romania has a 5.5% unemployment rate, according to the figure cited in the debate, and has been in the European Union for more than fifteen years. In terms of gross figures, jumps in GDP per capita are cited in several Eastern countries: Bulgaria would have gone from 1,700 to 14,000, Moldova from 2,000 to more than 5,000. The comfortable reading is that Spain stagnates while the East converges.

The uncomfortable reading is the opposite. GDP per capita also rises when the country exports population: Romania has four million fewer inhabitants than in 1990 and Bulgaria has gone from nine to 6.8 million. If those who found only misery leave, the quotient improves without the economy taking off. This complete calculation, with opposing figures, leaves the diagnosis open.

Who stays: the most uncomfortable flank of the return

A part of the analysis suggests that the return is selective and leaves behind profiles worse integrated into the labor market, while the arrival of new residents trinc a different pattern. Some formulate it directly as a substitution of workers for recipients of public aid. Without data to back it up, the generalization remains just that: a bar counter diagnosis with an uncomfortable part of reason and another of prejudice.

A rarely mentioned detail: Romania keeps its currency. At the exchange rate, one euro is four or five lei depending on the quote. Adopting the euro, they say, would return the blow to the pocket of those who leave.

With these numbers, return migration looks set to continue. What part responds to an economic decision and what part to a cycle that is ending is exactly what no one has fully clarified.