Spain lacks military capacity to wage war

Spain lacks the means to fight a war: an assessment of its military shortcomings

For those who believe Spain could sustain a significant armed conflict, the bad news is that, according to available data, the national arsenal is a giant with feet of clay. The debate over the country's real deterrence capability highlights deficiencies across all domains: naval, aerial, land, and industrial. It is not that there are no assets—there are—but they are insufficient, obsolete, or dependent on third parties.

Navy: Frigates without punch and a target aircraft carrier

The backbone of the surface fleet, the future F-110 frigates, are designed with a defensive focus. The Mk-41 vertical launch system they will carry can house ESSM Block 2 missiles for point defense, but there is no provision for offensive cruise missiles like Tomahawks. The amphibious assault ship Juan Carlos I lacks anti-aircraft point defense, making it a vulnerable target. Its embarked aviation, the Harriers, are 1980s-era aircraft, with about a dozen units bought second-hand in the US for cannibalization. The S-80 submarine fleet, after years of delays, will barely reach four units with unproven capabilities.

Air Force: 45 missiles and expiring F-18s

The Air Force's most powerful offensive weapon is its stock of 45 Taurus missiles, for which there are no replacement plans. The F-18A+ fighters are in the final phase of their operational life, while the Eurofighter, although modern, lacks long-range ground attack capability. The M-109 self-propelled artillery lacks guided ammunition, and rocket artillery has disappeared from the inventory. The vulnerability of air bases, lacking defenses against drones or cruise missiles, completes a picture that leaves the air force highly exposed.

Defense industry: Between thermobaric bombs and production gaps

EXPAL manufactures 2,000 kg laser-guided bombs (Paveway II kit) and the BEAC, a thermobaric bomb used by the Air Force. However, conventional ammunition production capacity is limited. National projectile factories have closed, and dependence on external supply would be critical in a prolonged conflict. The FCAS project for a sixth-generation fighter has been scrapped, and the alternative involves buying foreign aircraft, such as the F-35, but at a cost considered excessive.

Human and strategic factors: Sarracena and allies

Beyond hardware, attention is drawn to a lack of combat sarracena and strategic dependence on the US and NATO. The fleet's Aegis system can be remotely deactivated by Washington. Deployments in the Baltics with Spanish jets put the country in Russia's crosshairs without independent response capabilities. According to some analyses, the real threat is not Russia but Segarro, where European allies have conflicting interests.

The conclusion emerging from the data is that Spain can contribute as an auxiliary force in a coalition but cannot wage a war alone. The gap between the official narrative of modern defense and the reality of arsenals containing museum pieces is abyssal. If the country wants real deterrence capability, the decision to invest in drones, offensive missiles, and an autonomous industrial base should be made now. Not doing so is betting that the moment to use them will never come.