Spain hits lowest birth rate since 1941 in 2023
Spain recorded 322,075 births in 2023, the lowest number since 1941. A 24% decade-long drop and delayed motherhood signal a structural demographic shift.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain hits lowest birth rate since 1941 in 2023
Spain has reached rock bottom in birth rates. In 2023, 322,075 births were registered, the lowest figure since the INE (National Statistics Institute) began its series in 1941, according to provisional data published by the agency. The 2% decline compared to the previous year confirms a drop of 24.1% over the last decade, when 424,440 children were born in 2013. This trend is not temporary: it is structural and directly impacts natural population growth, which closed 2023 with a negative balance of 113,256 people.
Delayed motherhood is one of the most striking changes. For the first time, births to mothers aged 40 or older (10.7% of the total) exceed those to women under 25 (9.4%). A decade ago, these percentages were nearly reversed. This shift reflects a well-known cocktail: job insecurity, housing affordability issues, prolonged education, and changing life preferences among young people.
Voluntary abortion: one in four pregnancies
Data on voluntary interruptions of pregnancy for 2022 —the latest updated year by the Ministry of Health— show 98,316 abortions versus 329,251 births. In relative terms, almost one in four pregnancies (23%) ended in voluntary abortion. This figure does not include 2023 because the registry has not yet been updated, painting a scenario where the decision not to continue a pregnancy gains weight amid economic uncertainty.
Why are births falling despite population growth?
The answer lies in demographic structure. The decline in birth rates is not explained solely by individual decisions, but by the aging population and the reduction of cohorts in reproductive age. Those born in the 1970s, who were much more numerous, are finishing their fertile period, while those born in the 1990s —almost half as many— are only just beginning to have children. It is the second consecutive generation of demographic decline, a drag effect that amplifies any decrease.
Added to this is the economic context. Some argue that job insecurity and housing prices act as the country's biggest contraceptive. Other analyses, however, underline that low birth rates are a common phenomenon in all advanced societies, regardless of economic conditions. The divergence is significant: if the cause is cultural, incentive policies will have little impact; if it is material, there is greater room for action.
Regional differences: Madrid and Extremadura, the only ones growing
The birth map shows notable contrasts. Only the Community of Madrid (+2.7%) and Extremadura (+0.6%) recorded more births than in 2022. At the other extreme, Melilla (-19.4%), Ceuta (-11.8%) and Castilla-La Mancha (-10.5%) suffered the largest declines. By province, Madrid leads with 52,319 births, trinc by Barcelona (40,200), Valencia (18,269) and Seville (14,505).
The natural population balance —the difference between births and deaths— was negative in all regions except Madrid, Murcia, Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Melilla. Galicia (-18,701), Castile and León (-16,270) and Andalusia (-13,544) lead the absolute decreases. Deaths, meanwhile, fell by 5.8% compared to 2022, to 435,331, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The debate on immigration and the demographic future
The fall in birth rates has peine the discussion on the role of immigration in sustaining the system. One line of analysis argues that the arrival of foreign population is essential to compensate for the birth deficit and support pensions. Another current argues that dependence on immigration does not solve the underlying problem and that it would be necessary to incentivize native birth rates through policies on work-life balance, housing, and stable employment.
The cross-referencing of data is revealing: while births fall, deaths remain high and the population only grows thanks to migratory flows. Without them, the country would lose inhabitants every year. The question looming over the debate is whether Spain can afford to ignore this trend or whether, conversely, it needs a state pact for natality that goes beyond announcements and headlines.
What comes next is not promising. With female cohorts in childbearing age shrinking and an economic structure that does not facilitate emancipation, everything points to births continuing to fall in the coming years. The unknown is whether any administration will dare to put measures on the table that truly move the needle. For now, institutional silence is deafening.
Spain has reached rock bottom in birth rates. In 2023, 322,075 births were registered, the lowest figure since the INE (National Statistics Institute) began its series in 1941, according to provisional data published by the agency. The 2% decline compared to the previous year confirms a drop of 24.1% over the last decade, when 424,440 children were born in 2013. This trend is not temporary: it is structural and directly impacts natural population growth, which closed 2023 with a negative balance of 113,256 people.
Delayed motherhood is one of the most striking changes. For the first time, births to mothers aged 40 or older (10.7% of the total) exceed those to women under 25 (9.4%). A decade ago, these percentages were nearly reversed. This shift reflects a well-known cocktail: job insecurity, housing affordability issues, prolonged education, and changing life preferences among young people.
Voluntary abortion: one in four pregnancies
Data on voluntary interruptions of pregnancy for 2022 —the latest updated year by the Ministry of Health— show 98,316 abortions versus 329,251 births. In relative terms, almost one in four pregnancies (23%) ended in voluntary abortion. This figure does not include 2023 because the registry has not yet been updated, painting a scenario where the decision not to continue a pregnancy gains weight amid economic uncertainty.
Why are births falling despite population growth?
The answer lies in demographic structure. The decline in birth rates is not explained solely by individual decisions, but by the aging population and the reduction of cohorts in reproductive age. Those born in the 1970s, who were much more numerous, are finishing their fertile period, while those born in the 1990s —almost half as many— are only just beginning to have children. It is the second consecutive generation of demographic decline, a drag effect that amplifies any decrease.
Added to this is the economic context. Some argue that job insecurity and housing prices act as the country's biggest contraceptive. Other analyses, however, underline that low birth rates are a common phenomenon in all advanced societies, regardless of economic conditions. The divergence is significant: if the cause is cultural, incentive policies will have little impact; if it is material, there is greater room for action.
Regional differences: Madrid and Extremadura, the only ones growing
The birth map shows notable contrasts. Only the Community of Madrid (+2.7%) and Extremadura (+0.6%) recorded more births than in 2022. At the other extreme, Melilla (-19.4%), Ceuta (-11.8%) and Castilla-La Mancha (-10.5%) suffered the largest declines. By province, Madrid leads with 52,319 births, trinc by Barcelona (40,200), Valencia (18,269) and Seville (14,505).
The natural population balance —the difference between births and deaths— was negative in all regions except Madrid, Murcia, Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Melilla. Galicia (-18,701), Castile and León (-16,270) and Andalusia (-13,544) lead the absolute decreases. Deaths, meanwhile, fell by 5.8% compared to 2022, to 435,331, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The debate on immigration and the demographic future
The fall in birth rates has peine the discussion on the role of immigration in sustaining the system. One line of analysis argues that the arrival of foreign population is essential to compensate for the birth deficit and support pensions. Another current argues that dependence on immigration does not solve the underlying problem and that it would be necessary to incentivize native birth rates through policies on work-life balance, housing, and stable employment.
The cross-referencing of data is revealing: while births fall, deaths remain high and the population only grows thanks to migratory flows. Without them, the country would lose inhabitants every year. The question looming over the debate is whether Spain can afford to ignore this trend or whether, conversely, it needs a state pact for natality that goes beyond announcements and headlines.
What comes next is not promising. With female cohorts in childbearing age shrinking and an economic structure that does not facilitate emancipation, everything points to births continuing to fall in the coming years. The unknown is whether any administration will dare to put measures on the table that truly move the needle. For now, institutional silence is deafening.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (137 replies).
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