Spain 1939: Easy Prey for Germany or a Deadly Trap?
Spain in 1939, devastated by the civil war, would it have been an easy conquest for the Wehrmacht or a guerrilla trap? We examine the data and the arguments.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Germany vs Spain 1939: Military Stroll or a Spanish Vietnam?
When a German invasion of Spain in 1939 is speculated about, the scenario divides analysts. On one hand, the material evidence is overwhelming: Spain was emerging from a devastating civil war, with a subsistence economy, no grain to feed its population, scarce fuel and a poorly armed army. The Wehrmacht, at its peak, would have inflicted a rapid military defeat, as argued by the school of thought that sees the country as a "fly" to be swatted.
The Terrain Factor and Guerrilla Warfare
But the history of the Napoleonic invasion looms as a warning. Other analyses point out that Spain, due to its terrain and the tradition of popular resistance, could have turned the conquest into a guerrilla hell. The thesis: Republicans and Nationalists themselves, despite their recent enmity, would have united against the foreign invader, repeating the pattern of 1808. The French resistance was a joke compared to what it could have been in Spain, according to this view.
The Key Moment: Hendaye 1940
One variant places the turning point not in 1939 but in 1940, after the fall of France and the failure of the meeting between Hitler and Franco in Hendaye. There, Germany had a free hand to invade, with no other fronts open. Conquest would have been likely, but the Francoist army, divided between pro-German and pro-British factions, might not have put up firm resistance. The objective: Gibraltar and closing off the Mediterranean.
The Football Paradox
Amid the debate, one comment shifts the focus: if we're talking about football, with Zamora in goal and an attack antiestéticaturing Gorostiza and Lángara, Germany wouldn't have stood a chance. The irony doesn't hide the underlying point: the country was broken, but its competitive spirit, at least in sport, was another matter.
In the end, consensus remains elusive. Those who bet on a German military defeat rely on the guerrillas; the realists, on German material superiority. The only certainty is that the cost to Berlin would have been enormous, perhaps enough to alter the course of the war.
When a German invasion of Spain in 1939 is speculated about, the scenario divides analysts. On one hand, the material evidence is overwhelming: Spain was emerging from a devastating civil war, with a subsistence economy, no grain to feed its population, scarce fuel and a poorly armed army. The Wehrmacht, at its peak, would have inflicted a rapid military defeat, as argued by the school of thought that sees the country as a "fly" to be swatted.
The Terrain Factor and Guerrilla Warfare
But the history of the Napoleonic invasion looms as a warning. Other analyses point out that Spain, due to its terrain and the tradition of popular resistance, could have turned the conquest into a guerrilla hell. The thesis: Republicans and Nationalists themselves, despite their recent enmity, would have united against the foreign invader, repeating the pattern of 1808. The French resistance was a joke compared to what it could have been in Spain, according to this view.
The Key Moment: Hendaye 1940
One variant places the turning point not in 1939 but in 1940, after the fall of France and the failure of the meeting between Hitler and Franco in Hendaye. There, Germany had a free hand to invade, with no other fronts open. Conquest would have been likely, but the Francoist army, divided between pro-German and pro-British factions, might not have put up firm resistance. The objective: Gibraltar and closing off the Mediterranean.
The Football Paradox
Amid the debate, one comment shifts the focus: if we're talking about football, with Zamora in goal and an attack antiestéticaturing Gorostiza and Lángara, Germany wouldn't have stood a chance. The irony doesn't hide the underlying point: the country was broken, but its competitive spirit, at least in sport, was another matter.
In the end, consensus remains elusive. Those who bet on a German military defeat rely on the guerrillas; the realists, on German material superiority. The only certainty is that the cost to Berlin would have been enormous, perhaps enough to alter the course of the war.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (28 replies).
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