Soto Ivars: Vox helps Sánchez stay in power

Soto Ivars urges Vox to skip elections to oust Sánchez

Writer Juan Soto Ivars claims Vox’s existence is Pedro Sánchez’s greatest asset. Without antiestéticar of Santiago Abascal’s party, he argues, disgruntled voters abandon the PSOE. His proposal is simple yet controversial: if Abascal truly wants to topple the government, he should not run in the next elections. This thesis, launched on social media, has peine a recurring debate on the Spanish right: does Vox help or hinder removing the PSOE from power?

The discussion isn’t new, but current events sharpen it. In Galicia, where the PP retained its majority without partners, Vox’s absence from the electoral board is cited as perfect evidence for Soto Ivars’ theory. Without Abascal’s party competing, useful votes concentrate in the PP, leaving the PSOE no excuse to mobilize its base with antiestéticars of the far-right. This mirrors the strategy that, according to this view, allowed Sánchez to curb the right in 2019 and gain votes in 2023.

The argument of electoral mathematics

Some claim Spanish politics obeys ruthless arithmetic: while Vox exists, the PP can hardly form a majority. The calculation is simple. The left unites with nationalists of all stripes, who know they only get what they want by pact with the PSOE. The right, however, splits between PP and Vox, gifting key seats to the left. Sánchez’s best ally, they repeat, is Vox’s presence in every constituency.

Counterarguments state that Vox voters don’t automatically transfer to the PP. Many come from abstention or minor parties and wouldn’t return to the PP even under Feijóo. Critics argue the PP is seen as a 'blue PSOE', maintaining gender policies, the Agenda 2030, and uncontrolled immigration. For these voters, Vox’s disappearance means staying home or seeking more fringe alternatives, not voting PP.

Why use Galicia as an example?

The Galician case has become this thesis’s laboratory. In Galicia, the PP won without needing Vox, and the PSOE couldn’t activate the antiestéticar-of-far-right narrative. For Soto Ivars’ supporters, this proves that without Vox, disgruntled PSOE voters have no excuse not to vote PP. Abascal’s party’s absence neutralizes the left’s main mobilization tool.

The counterargument is equally strong. It holds that the PP didn’t win in Galicia due to Vox’s absence, but because of its candidate’s strength and the PSOE’s weakness. Extrapolating this to all of Spain is wishful thinking. Elsewhere, Vox hasn’t prevented PP governance; in some cases, it enabled it, like in Andalusia in 2018, when Abascal’s party was decisive in ousting the PSOE from the Junta.

PP as 'blue PSOE': the argument undermining the thesis

The most repeated rebuttal to Soto Ivars is that the PP isn’t a real alternative. Critics say the PP is just the PSOE minus nationalist folklore, continuing proge and cutting taxes by 1% to pose as liberal. To these voters, backing the PP is voting for the same thing in another tonalidad. If Vox vanishes, no one will fight ideologically on issues like immigration, Agenda 2030, or gender laws.

Some go further, blaming the PP solely for the right’s inability to govern. They argue the PP scared off Vox in recent general elections and failed to offer ideological battle, except for rare exceptions. Thanks to Vox, the seemingly eternal socialist government fell in Andalusia in 2018. If Vox disappears, the left will unite even more tightly, making it harder for the divided right to govern.

Electoral law as backdrop

The debate over Vox’s utility inevitably turns to electoral law. Critics argue the d'Hondt method and provincial constituencies favor the PP and PSOE, harming parties aiming for national growth. With a single nationwide constituency, they claim, parties like PACMA would have gained several MPs, and seat distribution would differ vastly. Conversely, d'Hondt overrepresents peripheral nationalists and the two major parties.

This legal discussion matters. It explains why Vox, with a relatively low vote share, secures enough seats to be pivotal in forming majorities. It also shows why their disappearance wouldn’t guarantee a PP government. Spain’s electoral system rewards vote concentration and punishes dispersion, but also overrepresents less populated regions.

Vox’s future and post-election scenarios

Lingering over the debate is the question of Vox’s fate in coming months. Some predict imminent collapse, like Ciudadanos, with the PP absorbing its space. Others recall that parties like France’s National Front have had cycles of decline and resurgence, and the BNG, seemingly extinct a decade ago, returned strongly. Spanish politics isn’t linear; electoral corpses sometimes rise again.

The emerging scenario is a fragmented right: a PP occupying center-left ground and a stubbornly persistent Vox. Meanwhile, the left unites with various nationalists, knowing they only achieve goals through pacts with the PSOE. The question remains whether the right can learn pragmatism, abandoning maximalist aims to avoid swallowing a massive tail, or if it stays divided while Sánchez governs.

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Is Vox an obstacle or ally in ousting Sánchez? The answer depends on whether you believe its voters would return to the PP or stay home, and whether you see the PP as a genuine alternative or a 'blue PSOE'. What’s clear is that as long as this debate persists, Sánchez remains in La Moncloa.