Silver floor at $31.65, target back to $35

Silver seeks floor at $31.65 before attacking $35

According to a forum user tracking the metal, silver has already retreated as far as it needed to, placing the floor at $31.65. From there, the path can only lead upward, returning to $35. The proponent of this thesis did not just state it: they used the drop to buy every available tube of coins and now wait patiently for the market to prove them right. With prices back above $32, this scenario remains alive, but with a warning: if the $30.65 level is lost, things would get very ugly, according to the same user, who places the 200-session moving average in the $30.65-30.70 zone.

The pullback thesis: $31.65 floor and $35 target

The reasoning is textbook: an asset that rises corrects part of its move and then continues. Applied to silver prices, the pullback had to exhaust itself at $31.65 before resuming the uptrend, and losing that level would invalidate the scenario entirely. Based on this premise, the strategy consists of accumulating physical metal during each dip and ignoring daily quotes. Accumulate and wait.

There are more flexible versions of the same forecast. Some place the bounce slightly lower, around $31.40, accompanying the prediction with a reference for gold at $1,680. Another school lowers the bar until it becomes irrelevant: it does not matter if the floor is at $31.40, $31.65, or two dollars lower, because what matters is the medium and long term holding metal in hand. For this profile, leveraged products are smoke.

There is no unanimity by far. One forum user warns that neither technical nor fundamental arguments support an immediate rebound, and buying at these prices is reckless. The discussion, therefore, is not about the final direction, but about time and the path.

Why are $30.65 the red line for silver?

Because it is the level where the bullish scenario breaks and opens the door to a fall with few brakes. The 200-session moving average passes through the $30.65-30.70 zone, and losing it would leave the chart very damaged. The most pessimistic scenario put on the table points directly to $26 if that support does not hold.

On the other side, some read the opposite: if the price crosses the 100 and 200 session averages, the warning is not of a rise but of bleeding. The contradiction is eloquent. Two readings of the same chart, the same average, opposite conclusions. Short-term forecasts have been corrected on the fly: the predicted close for a specific day at a minimum of $32.18 did not materialize.

QE3, euro at 1.3175 and US elections

The underlying argument, according to one participant, is monetary. If the Federal Reserve maintains expansion and puts more dollars into circulation to sustain the economy, each new bill dilutes the value of existing ones. The logical consequence, for this reading, is the search for refuge in precious metals and oil.

The chronological review of recent weeks is also financial. The August rise is attributed to the euro's strength against the dollar after ECB meetings, and the September to mid-October rise to QE3. From there, correction. And a specific reference: the euro touches 1.3175 dollars, a level one forum user considers a ceiling before turning downward.

Another hypothesis looms over the electoral calendar: prices heavily intervened until the American elections take place. No one moves a piece, neither in metals, nor in markets, nor in delicate decisions like a hypothetical war with Iran, so as not to disturb the vote. It is a suspicion, not data, but it explains the sideways feeling dragging the metal.

The theft that left behind silver coins

Amidst the forecasts, a domestic episode brought the issue back down to earth. A saver recounted that burglars entered their home and took all jewelry and gold. They left the silver coins there, with a bitter comment: silver is for the poor. According to his account, neither doors nor windows appeared forced.

The subsequent reflection was uncomfortable and very non-financial. Several responses insisted on the same thing: hide the metal well or take it to a safety deposit box, and think twice before declaring it in a policy, because the paper documenting what one keeps at home does not always work in your favor. The practical conclusion is that the physical security of the investment weighs as much as the purchase price.

From closing at 32.18 to 'ready to explode'

The struggle with the chart has been constant. A takeoff was predicted surpassing $33, trinc by a day closing at least at $32, with $32.18 as a specific figure. It did not happen. The response was to assume the failure and remember that only those who commit succeed or fail, while silver prices returned to being placed above $32.

There was even time for an impossible request: the exact price of silver on February 22, 2032, the retirement day of the person asking. And for the joke that those making these predictions have some bad luck. The last message of the segment, however, returns to the attack with force: the metal is prepared to rise strongly and short positions of major banks will suffer.

With prices above $32, the exhausted pullback thesis remains alive. The caveat is the usual one: as long as $30.65 holds, the scenario stands; if they give way, the conversation changes sign. No one has yet found the date, and that is the only missing piece of data.