Ibex 35 drops 13% after failed August 2015 crash prediction

August 2015: Ibex falls 13% as crash arrives late

A warning published on August 4, 2015, announced that a stock market crash would begin the next day. It claimed declines would be more severe than many could imagine. The recommendation was unequivocal: exit any IBEX 35 asset or take short positions, with Ferrovial, Acciona, and ACS cited as ideal candidates for betting on a downturn. The message ended with an you have been warned that would generate discussion weeks later.

The date was also specific. This makes the prediction verifiable and, simultaneously, awkward. Because there was no crash on August 5, 2015.

What peine on August 5, 2015

The designated day passed without a collapse. The response was nearly unanimous: another day without the promised bearish party and another warning that the crash would come tomorrow. The trinc morning gave the predictor his first trump card: Codere rose 31%, which he quickly recalled, although a 31% rise had little to do with a fall. Acknowledgment of the error was partial, of the type I got the timing wrong but not the form, and the start was rescheduled for the next day: the Ibex heading toward 9,800 points that same month, without ruling out 9,600.

Targets: Ibex at 8,200 and Nasdaq at 2,860

On August 12, the figures arrived. They were written as trinc: the Nasdaq Composite would drop to 2,860 points in the first downward wave, the Ibex to 8,200, the DAX to 7,000, the S&P 500 to 1,220, and the Dow Jones to 11,000. Calculations based on this list were striking: for the Ibex, the target equated to 26% below the previous day's close; for the S&P 500, Dow, and DAX, implied declines hovered around 40%. The index-by-index breakdown offers a picture that does not resemble a summer correction.

The fall came, but the trigger was the yuan

Here lies the core problem. Markets did fall. But the yuan devaluation was behind the declines, and no one had it on their radar: it was impossible to know and even less so to pinpoint the exact day. That nuance dismantles the narrative of premonition. The magnitudes did not help either: a day of 1.41% decline in the Ibex and 1.06% in the S&P 500 is not a crash, it is a correction that should barely ruffle a long-term investor. The cumulative balance was serious —1,465 points, 13%— but it arrived via a route the warning had not foreseen.

What is CAPE and why was it used as an argument?

The only significant figure put on the table before being right was the CAPE of the S&P 500, at 27.2, 64% above its historical average of 16.6. This ratio adjusts the P/E ratio for the economic cycle and serves to measure if a market is expensive. From there, the reasoning relied on the dollar falling sharply and dragging markets down, plus 7-year economic cycles and long Kondratiev waves of 75 years. This type of argument has a known flaw: it says something will happen, but not when. And in the market, timing is everything.

The precedent of August 2011

The parallel brought into the conversation was that of August 2011, with the downgrade of US debt ratings: gold went from $1,600 to $1,900, the S&P 500 lost 15% in days, biotech stocks dropped an average of 30-40%, and the Ibex fell 2,000 points. Then, the S&P 500 had lost support at 200 sessions, biotech stocks fell 15% in two days, the euro-dollar rebounded from 1.0840, and gold touched $1,110 from $1,180. The analogy invited, at minimum, checking the calendar.

The history no one wants to remember

The credibility of the warning carried a bill. Some recalled it had been warning for three years about Codere, with people making decisions based on those warnings and losing much money along the way, besides emptied portfolios operating in currencies. The defense was that trinc could sell above €2.50. The counterpunch came in the form of elementary logic: guessing up or down is not being right. Insisting every day with the same prediction until one hits proves nothing.

With the Ibex 13% down, CAPE at 27.2, and a decline that occurred days late and for a reason no one had named, the matter remains exactly where it cannot be settled: whether that was a premonition or simply a repeated bet until the roulette landed on the good side.