Scott Ritter predicts Ukrainian army will collapse by this summer

Scott Ritter predicts the Ukrainian army will collapse in the coming months

Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter has once again issued a prophecy about the outcome of the war in Ukraine. According to him, the Ukrainian army would crumble over the coming summer due to continuous attrition and Russian superiority on the front line. The claim, published on an analysis blog, has peine the debate over the credibility of an analyst with a controversial track record.

The data behind Ritter's forecast

Ritter bases his prediction on the rate of Ukrainian casualties. He calculates that Ukraine loses around 1,500 soldiers every day, a figure he says has risen since Russia expanded its operations in the Kharkiv region. To this he adds the failure of last summer's counteroffensive, which exposed Kyiv's weakness in holding a stable defensive line. Overall, some estimates put monthly losses at 25,000 troops. For Ritter, the equation is simple: without the capacity to replace losses or firm support, resistance will run out before autumn.

The shadow over his credibility

The problem with Ritter is that his résumé has two sides. On the one hand, he was chief UN inspector in Iraq and was right to deny the existence of weapons of mass destruction, defying the Bush administration. On the other, he has a incivil record for sens offences —he was convicted in the US for attempting to contact minors online—, which has led many to brand him a «Kremlin plumber» and question anything he writes. His sympathies for Russia, where he lives, do little to dispel suspicions of bias.

What does the reality on the ground say?

Supporters of the Russian thesis point to Ukraine's loss of positions in Donetsk and its inability to protect the 2014 defensive line, with Kramatorsk as the last stronghold. They also cite the Ukrainian operation in Kursk as a desperate gambler's move that, far from easing the front, has accelerated the Russian advance by pulling troops out of the Donbas. Against this, critics point out that Ritter has spent two years predicting a collapse «within weeks» that never materialised. The incursion into Russian territory and the steady flow of Western aid —billions in weaponry— contradict the narrative of an army on the brink.

The analysis ends where it started: with no clear date for the collapse. What time has shown is that Ritter's prophecies, like those of so many others, wear out faster than the front lines themselves.