3,600 casualties a day: the estimate dividing analysts

3,600 casualties a day: the hidden cost of the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three years, and casualty figures remain a taboo. An article in the journal Parameters, by Katie Crombe and John Nagl, estimates that the Ukrainian army must replace an average of 3,600 casualties a day. Extrapolated, the figure exceeds one million casualties a year. But is it realistic? The debate is on.

The figure that divides: 3,600 casualties a day

The Parameters article, published in Vol. 53, no. 3, argues that anyone fighting on the Ukrainian side must be prepared to replace an average of 3,600 casualties every day. Casualties are not just the dead: they include the wounded, the maimed and the missing. Some analysts consider the figure exaggerated, noting that it includes lightly wounded soldiers who return to service. Others, however, see it as conservative, given that the front line stretches 1,200 kilometers and Russian artillery fires thousands of shells a day.

The missing and the dead: the war's iceberg

The Red Cross has put the number of Ukrainian missing at around 400,000, although the figure has been qualified under pressure from NATO. The missing usually account for between 10% and 15% of total losses, which would point to more than 2.5 million casualties. Other sources, such as data leaked by hackers, speak of 1.7 million irrecoverable losses among the dead, the maimed, prisoners and deserters. Estimates of the dead range from 400,000 to 700,000, with some analyses not ruling out a figure approaching one million.

Forced mobilization: the thermometer of attrition

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, has declared that Ukraine will collapse if it does not mobilize more than 30,000 men a month. Multiplied by the months of war, that figure gives a total of losses exceeding two million. Forced mobilization, with recruiters on the streets, shows that the attrition is real. Some analysts point out that the problem is not just the dead, but the wounded who never return, the deserters and the psychological casualties.

Historical comparisons and the debate over reality

The debate pits those who believe the figures are enormous but plausible in a war of attrition against those who consider them exaggerated. Comparisons are drawn with the world wars, when tens of thousands died daily at Verdun or the Somme. It is also noted that the Russian economy has not collapsed, suggesting the war remains sustainable for Moscow. The question is whether Ukraine can keep up the pace.

With these figures on the table, the question is an uncomfortable one: how long can Ukraine sustain such a casualty rate without society breaking apart? Nobody seems to have a clear answer.