Sánchez’s risky gamble on Spain’s early election window

Pedro Sánchez has called Spain's general elections for November 29, betting on a "window of opportunity" that includes a general strike on November 11, two decrees against evictions, and the so-called "grandchildren law." The opposition argues that the PP and Vox would secure nearly 200 seats, complicating any potential victory.

Spanish politics is currently experiencing a sequence of events that seems scripted by a writer with too much free time. The death of **Maricarmen Abascal**, an 89-year-old woman, trinc her eviction and the surrounding political and social agitation, has become an argument in La Moncloa and Ferraz for those convinced—though not entirely—that **Pedro Sánchez** will win the **November 29** elections. Or at least that he will retain power with the support of his nationalist allies and the far left.

## A general strike during the pre-campaign

The unions **UGT** and **CC.OO.** have called a general strike for **November 11**, just two days before the official start of the electoral campaign. This call comes after these organizations received an average of **71 million euros in public subsidies over the last eight years**. For the government, the strike is another mobilization lever. For its critics, it means the unions are abandoning their labor role to become political appendages and electoral agents serving the PSOE.

The date is no coincidence. **November 11** falls squarely in the pre-campaign period, when messages are already fine-tuned and media outlets cover every statement as if it were a rally. The lingering question is what will happen with pickets attempting to block access to work for those who do not join the strike, and how the **Ministry of Interior**, led by **Fernando Grande-Marlaska**, will guarantee that right.

## Decrees, pensions, and the electoral cushion

The government plans to approve two new decrees against evictions in the **Standing Committee of Congress**. The measure directly affects approximately **two and a half million landlords** in Spain. The executive presents this as protection for vulnerable tenants. Owners view it as another attack on their property rights, and some warn they will vote accordingly.

This package also includes improvements to the **minimum wage** and the **lowest pensions**. Together, they form an electoral cushion with which Sánchez aims to jump safely through the famous "window of opportunity." The phrase, repeated in socialist circles, describes the moment when political circumstances allow calling early elections with an advantage.

## The 'grandchildren law' and the naturalized vote

The government wants the **Supreme Court** to endorse the so-called "grandchildren law," allowing recently naturalized Spaniards to vote in these elections. The requirement being relaxed is proving that their ancestors were political exiles from the Republic. According to sectors critical of the executive, the Supreme Court was recently humiliated by the majority led by **Conde-Pumpido** at the **Constitutional Court** regarding the amnesty law.

The maneuver is not without controversy. If the Supreme Court validates the norm, thousands of people who obtained nationality in recent years could vote on **November 29**. The PP has already announced it will appeal any shortcut it considers illegal.

## Zapatero, Begoña Gómez, and Puigdemont's return

In terms of key figures, the PSOE is considering including **José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero**, now under investigation, in its rallies, and potentially placing **Begoña Gómez**, the president's vvife, who is charged and awaiting trial, on electoral lists. The intention would be to grant her immunity before she faces a popular jury at the **Superior Court of Justice of Madrid**. The president might also appoint his brother **David** as ambassador to Japan, making good on the saying "face the consequences."

Meanwhile, the return to Spain of former Catalan president **Carles Puigdemont**, a fugitive from justice, has been postponed until after **November 29**. The delay, premeditated and possibly agreed upon, prevents his presence from clouding the campaign. Regarding the migration crisis in **Ceuta**, Sánchez will use the screen of the Spanish Royal Family's visit after **October 12**, and the **30th Ibero-American Summit** on **November 4 and 5** in Madrid, attended by Venezuelan official **Delcy Rodríguez**.

The campaign officially begins on **November 13**, with predictable televised debates, including a head-to-head between Sánchez and **Alberto Núñez Feijóo**. Polls forecast a clear victory for the right with nearly **200 seats**, but the PSOE trusts that the PP and Vox will not reach a sufficient majority, as peine in 2023. There is a widespread impression among citizens that Sánchez's primary goal is not just staying in power, but ending the constitutional regime of **1978** and imposing a socialist and confederal republic, according to warnings from former president **José María Aznar**. An euphoric and reckless Sánchez has decided to jump out the window. He believes he will land on a soft cushion. It is not ruled out that he will crash.