Sánchez calls Spanish general election for November 29

Sánchez calls a general election for November 29

Will he stay or will he go? The doubt was resolved within minutes: Pedro Sánchez appeared at 9:00 and announced the dissolution of the Cortes and a general election for November 29. He did it, according to the narrative he himself built, for the good of Spain. The immediate reaction was surprise: much of the political class had bet on him serving out the term, because holding on to power is what he has always done.

What Sánchez said and what he was expected to say

The dominant expectation was different. It was taken for granted that he would come out to announce a new housing law, to call on the parties to join the "popular clamour" and to blame the opposition for blocking his decrees. The script of the warm-up act, summed up by those who predicted he would say he is staying "until the end of the term to keep the far right out of government." That did not happen.

What did happen was a rally. Sánchez talked about his record, about the penthouse, and never mentioned Ceuta. Among the gems he dropped was one that keeps coming up in conversations: that the per capita income of Spaniards is triple that of the French and Germans. Just like that, no hesitation. The figure does not hold up in any way, but he said it.

November 29 and the suspicion of electoral fraud

The chosen date, a Sunday on a long weekend, set off every alarm. Why that day and not another? Some argue the key lies in the CERA vote (the ballot of Spaniards resident abroad) and in fast-tracked naturalised citizens, and that the electoral roll must be monitored exhaustively. The most optimistic calculation for the governing bloc assumes there is indeed room to scrape the last seats in the chosen constituencies; the pessimistic scenario assumes the PP and Vox profit from the government's wear and tear.

The argument is not new. At every election the same suspicion resurfaces, and this time the rehearsal — the morning rally — was interpreted as a success that leaves time to prepare another before the summer. The Maricarmen operation, already spent, was left behind.

The electoral arithmetic: a five-seat margin

Here is the crux. For the left to hold on, it needs to beat the opposing bloc by five seats. If you look at the results by province from the last election, the margin is razor thin. There is no visible source for them. If Sumar and Podemos run together, the goal looks almost impossible; if they run separately, then the PP and Vox have a real chance.

The arithmetic allows no tricks. Every seat counts and the small provinces decide. That is why the most repeated analysis is that this election call is not a leap into the unknown but a calculated bet, with the electoral roll as the hidden variable.

The opposition and the ghost of the blue PP

On the other side, distrust is structural. Part of the right-wing electorate argues that the PP is "the blue PSOE," the same old coward, and that if it governs with Vox it must not negotiate anything: judges to go after Zapatero, Begoña, Pedro, Leire and company, all of them to prison. That is the current demanding a hard line and refusing to believe Feijóo will deliver it.

On the opposite side, the opposite antiestéticar: that the PP will win and get stuck with the burden of austerity, crisis and wars. And in the middle, the certainty that, with this opposition, the PSOE will govern again. It already peine on July 23.

What is at stake for Spain on November 29

The board looks like this: a campaign expected to be savage, with heated streets, and a government presenting itself as the only dam against the far right. The rest are unknowns. If electoral fraud exists, it will show up in the electoral roll. If not, it will show up at the ballot box. For now, Sánchez has already said he is fine. The only thing left to find out was whether he had had breakfast.