Ayuso survives because the PP wants her to

Ayuso cannot fall: the internal logic of the PP that shields her

Amid a full-blown political storm, one thesis is gaining ground: Isabel Díaz Ayuso will not fall, not because she is innocent, but because Spain's Partido Popular cannot afford to lose her. The strategic discussion running through the party's corridors holds that the Madrid regional president is, today, her party's most valuable electoral asset, and that any attempt to bring her down through the courts runs into the same logic that kept Cristina Cifuentes afloat for months.

The Cifuentes precedent: surviving the master's degree, falling to the party

Cifuentes's case is the mirror analysts use. The former Madrid president weathered the fake master's degree scandal while everyone around her fell, including the university rector. The judge did not charge her: according to the investigation, she had «nothing to do with it». She came out unscathed, until the PP leaked to OKdiario the video of her stealing cosmetic creams, and there was no going back. The lesson is clear: in the PP it is not a judge who brings you down, it is the party.

The scapegoat option

In the current case, eyes are on the regional Presidency Ministry. Some argue the regional minister will ultimately take the fall and that the party leadership at Génova street is already looking for the expendable piece. According to some interpretations, the leak of the penthouses scandal came from within the party itself, as a sign that Ayuso is starting to be written off. If that is true, the outcome will not be decided by the courts, but by the power calculus on Génova street.

The conclusion leaves a bad taste: if Ayuso falls, the PP falls with her, and that is why she will not fall as long as the party needs her. But the Cifuentes precedent is a reminder that immunity lasts only as long as the party's interest does. No one knows when it expires.