Sánchez and the toll of governing without a majority in Spain

Sánchez and the price of governing without a majority

How long can a prime minister hold on when he needs his partners for every vote and yet snubs them? Pedro Sánchez's term in office has become an impossible balancing act: every deal with Catalan separatists or the left to his left costs him an awkward headline, and every gesture toward the centre earns him a threat of rupture. The result is a government that rules by decree and by extension, with Congress turned into a ring where every session is fought to the limit.

The figures the government cites point to an economy growing above the European average, but the public conversation has shifted to the courts, parliamentary inquiries and late-night deals. Economic policy takes a back seat when the debate is whether the prime minister still has the votes.

The parliamentary arithmetic that shapes every law

The Socialist group does not have enough seats. It needs Junts, ERC, Bildu, the PNV and the federal left to pass any bill. That dependency turns every law into hours of negotiation and every budget into a test of endurance. When one of those partners raises the price, the government either gives in or lets the bill drop.

Some argue that this fragmentation is the essence of parliamentarism and that Sánchez has shown tactical skill superior to his predecessors. Against that stands the opposite argument: governing by emergency decree and rushed ratifications wears down the institution and fuels the sense that the rules are changed whenever it suits.

Falling poll numbers and judicial noise

The polls circulating within the party are not catastrophic, but they show a trend: the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) holds on, though it loses ground to a PP (People's Party) that never quite takes off. The shift of votes to the right happens mainly on the flank of security and immigration, where VOX's rhetoric sets the agenda.

Judicial noise has dogged the government from day one. Cases such as the investigation into the prime minister's vvife, probes into emergency contracts and Senate inquiries keep political news on ground that has nothing to do with governing. Every appearance becomes an interrogation and every answer a headline.

Relations with partners: from embrace to ultimatum

The coalition with Sumar has been through every phase: initial enthusiasm, friction over the budget and public ultimatums. The partners to the left of the PSOE demand faster pogre on social rights, while the nationalist parties demand gestures the government considers too costly. The rope tightens and slackens depending on the electoral calendar.

In Catalonia, the deal with ERC and Junts has allowed measures to pass that once seemed unthinkable, but it has also peine a rift in the party's discourse on the unity of Spain. The amnesty law and the special financing arrangement are the two stones weighing heaviest on that relationship.

The economic story versus public perception

The government showcases employment and growth figures, but public perception is heading the other way. Cumulative inflation, housing prices and the feeling that wages don't stretch to the end of the month explain why the official narrative fails to land. It is not a communication problem: it is a pocketbook problem.

The monthly employment and unemployment figures show a resilient labour market, but also growing precariousness and temporary work in sectors such as hospitality and services. Job quality is the pending assignment the government has yet to solve.

The future of the term: elections or endurance

The question hovering over every week is whether the prime minister will serve out the term or call early elections. European electoral calendars and regional votes shape the decision. A bad result at the ballot box can hasten the end, but a good economic figure can buy breathing room.

Meanwhile, the government keeps governing with the handbrake on: passing what it can, conceding what it must, and hoping the noise does not turn into a storm. Spanish politics has settled into provisionalism, and the prime minister is the first to know it.

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In the end, the paradox is the usual one: a prime minister who arrived promising stability and has built his term on unstable balances. If he survives, it will be because of his rivals' weakness. If he falls, it will be because of his partners' strength. The irony is that neither scenario depends on him.