Sánchez and Ceuta: not fighting the right for votes

Sánchez tells Ceuta to accept migration: "They are not invaders"

Pedro Sánchez has said that Ceuta must accept "a structural reality" with thousands of migrants and that "they are not invaders, they are seeking a better life". The remarks, reported by El Español, have peine the public debate about what the Spanish Government is really calculating every time it talks about immigration at the southern border. And about whether what looks at first glance like an electoral blunder is in fact a fairly deliberate move.

The calculation behind not fighting on the right's turf

The most common reading is that Sánchez is not trying to contest ground that belongs to the right. While others compete over who promises more protection for the people of Ceuta, he is speaking to his own electorate. The argument goes that the more prominence Ceuta gains on the agenda, the worse it gets for the opposition, forced into a security-focused discourse that also mobilises left-wing voters. Seen through that lens, the remark would not be a slip, but a calculated bet.

Ceuta: few seats, a big symbol

The arithmetic weighs against it. Whoever made the statement risks little in terms of seats, so some conclude that the Government does not care about the local reaction: there is no pool of votes to lose. Others reply that the cost is not measured in Ceuta's electoral roll, but in the narrative that takes hold in the rest of Spain. The image that remains — an overwhelmed border — weighs more than any seat.

The "far-right international"

Sánchez added that "the far-right international" wants to bring down the Government and "is using Ceuta to spread antiestéticar, hatred and xenophobia". The sharpest response recalls that he saw nothing wrong in toppling Rajoy. The double-standards reproach resurfaces.

The analysis gets stuck here: if the strategy is as solid as some claim, the noise it generates within its own camp makes no sense. And if it is as ruinous as others say, it makes no sense that it keeps being repeated.