Russia cements its annexations as the West winds down aid

The West scales back aid to Ukraine as Russia consolidates its gains

When did the West stop believing it could win this war? The latest US military package for Ukraine came in at just 275 million dollars, far below previous shipments, and in Washington it is now openly acknowledged that continuing to supply materiel would compromise America's own security. As if that signal were not enough, the United Kingdom replaced Liz Truss, billed as the prime minister ready to hit the accelerator, with Rishi Sunak, a considerably more moderate figure. The question is no longer rhetorical.

What has changed on the front in two months

In barely eight weeks, Russia announced the partial mobilization of 300,000 soldiers and, shortly afterwards, the incorporation of four Ukrainian provinces. On the ground, some argue that Ukraine had long been preparing an offensive in Kherson that never materialized, even in good weather; one reading interprets that silence as an order to stop making a fool of itself, while another attributes it to the fact that Russia's defensive lines in Kherson are far stronger than those in Kharkiv. It is not a consensus thesis: another part of the analysis stresses that Ukraine recaptured some 1,800 square kilometers and drove Russian troops out of positions they have not regained.

1,000-dollar drones against NATO air defenses

The economic argument is the most uncomfortable one. According to the account circulating, Iran sells its drones for around 20,000 dollars, but Russia now manufactures them on its own territory under the name Geran-2 at a rate of 100 units a day and at a cost of between 1,000 and 2,000 dollars. The calculation making the rounds is simple: intercepting a device at that price with an air-defense missile costs far more than the drone itself. Some claim these units easily peine the NATO defenses deployed in Ukraine and that one of them managed to shoot down one of the few fighter jets the country had left.

Ukrainian casualties: from 500 to 1,000 a day

The figures fall within an uncomfortable range. Volodymyr Zelensky himself spoke of up to 700 daily casualties, and Ukrainian officials quoted by the American press raise the count to 1,000 a day in the Donbas. An official admitted in September to 10,000 dead. The nuance, which rarely appears in headlines, is that the English term casualties covers the dead, the wounded of varying severity and prisoners, not just fatalities.

Is Russia winning? Two narratives that never meet

Here the disagreement is total. One camp holds that Russia is losing and that its superior numbers in men and materiel will eventually be offset by Western intelligence, weaponry and logistics. The opposing camp replies that Russia barely suffers losses of its own —a large share would be pro-Russian Ukrainians, Chechens, mercenaries and recruits pulled off the street and out of prisons— and that it is wearing down its adversary at bargain prices. In between, a third reading suggests the real beneficiary is the US, which in a single move would have weakened Europe's economies and secured access to natural resources.

The map being drawn along the Dnieper

The hypothesis gaining the most ground is that Russia will not settle for the four provinces. The logic being invoked is geographic: the Dnieper river as the border and the hills of the Podolian Plateau as a natural barrier, with a friendly government in the rest of the country. The debate notes that the map published by Dmitry Medvedev would essentially match that partition. Diplomatic moves, however, point in another direction: Paris and Budapest are pressing for Washington to take the initiative and open negotiations.

The sanctions Russia does not feel

One of the keys being highlighted is internal resilience. Some argue that Russian public opinion has hardened and that the economic sanctions go in one ear and out the other, with no riots or visible collapse. Meanwhile, Moscow announces it will take the United Kingdom to the UN over what it calls the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines and in Sevastopol. The fight has moved from the front line to paper.

That the shift is announced with a 275-million package, the most modest figure in months, says a great deal. What it does not say is how long the narrative intends to hold while half of Ukraine is periodically left in the dark.