Rolex investment narrative collapses amid Swiss manufacturing claims

Rolex prices stall: The influencer investor story deflates

Remember when a handful of YouTubers explained, with the watch in close-up, that a Rolex never drops in value and that buying one was your ticket to an exclusive club? That narrative has cracked. The trigger circulating is a whistleblower claim from workers stating that part of the production was not made in Switzerland and some components came from China. For those who bought expecting appreciation, the consequence is familiar: when the hype fades, only the object remains.

The debate sparked around this issue has one merit: it revealed that almost no one bought the watch for the watch itself. They bought it for the story surrounding it.

What peine with Rolex and alleged Chinese manufacturing

The starting point is an accusation by employees: that not everything was manufactured in Switzerland and certain parts originated in China. Precision is key here: it is an allegation, not a verdict. But it has been enough to shake the myth of the Alpine workshop among those who argued that value lay in artisanal origins.

On top of this rift sits the second layer of the issue. The brand sells exclusivity while producing on an industrial scale, and that contradiction is what causes the most discomfort. Some summarize it bluntly: factory-made goods are sold as craftsmanship. The price does not pay for the mechanism; it pays for the showcase.

The waiting list that wasn't really a waiting list

The episode that best illustrates the mechanism involves the boutique. During a visit to the store on Paseo de la Castellana in Madrid, several watches were displayed, but only two were available for sale: a pink gold Submariner with a rubber strap for 45,000 euros and another in yellow gold, also with rubber, for 47,000 euros. The steel models, which buyers actually want, were missing.

The explanation circulating is that accessing steel series requires VIP status and having previously purchased one of those ostentatious oligarch pieces. Only then, by chance, might a steel model appear and be offered to you. The alternative suggested is trying your luck at duty-free shops in Dubai, China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, or Singapore, where stock sometimes appears.

Watches aren't investments: the argument gaining traction

Against the YouTuber narrative, a more uncomfortable thesis has solidified: no mass-produced movable asset gains value over time. The phrase "I'm buying a Rolex because it's a good investment" is attributed to those who know nothing about investing or horology, yet the argument stands alone.

For those truly interested in investing, the mentioned alternative is different: Patek Philippe Nautilus and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, with limited productions of around 70,000 units annually. Even that figure raises doubts: some consider 70,000 still too many, especially given the gradual disappearance of the generation sustaining this market.

The watch as an object: Seiko, Grand Seiko, and quartz pricing

The conversation shifted to what matters most to watch wearers: telling time accurately. Here, Seiko emerges as the brand selling the most calibers, with its Spring Drive being a hybrid mechanical-quartz movement that cannot be counterfeited—a problem that does exist with Rolex, where high-end replicas with fake cases and certificates fool all but experts.

The issue is price. Grand Seiko watches with Spring Drive, which years ago cost around 2,000 euros, can now cost double. Seiko has raised prices significantly, though reliability holds up: there are Seiko watches functioning perfectly after more than twenty years.

At the opposite extreme lies cheap quartz. A F-91 costing 10 euros offers a decade of service; when the battery dies, it’s replaced for a euro at a bazaar, or the watch is discarded and another bought. Some argue that wearing a 20-euro Casio while being a millionaire is a gesture of rebellion against external validation. Others respond that it is simply bad taste.

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In the end, the lingering question isn’t whether Rolex prices rise or fall. It’s how many of those who bought one hoping for resale would have paid the same amount for an object that only tells the time.