Right-wing overreach may inadvertently rescue Pedro Sánchez

Right-wing overreach may inadvertently rescue Pedro Sánchez

The opposition's strategy might be achieving the exact opposite of its goal: mobilizing the left and unifying the socialist vote just as the Government appears most vulnerable.

This analogy is common in informal political analysis: during the 2023 elections, the PP (People's Party) claimed victory too early, fueled by premature celebrations and promises of revenge. That approach mobilized a left wing that had seemed disengaged, leaving Feijóo with nothing to show for it. Now, according to a growing opinion among skeptical observers, history is repeating itself. The "fachosfera" (the far-right social sphere)—to use the term circulating in political circles—may have fallen into the same trap: an indiscriminate hunt for leftists, nuanced-free lawfare, and a snake-oil salesman's optimism that could once again activate left-wing voters.

Lawfare backfiring

One of the most discussed points is the judicial treatment of the President's vvife, Begoña Gómez, and former President Zapatero. While Zapatero has been denied precautionary measures in a serious case, arguing that his public profile reduces flight risk, the situation of Begoña Gómez runs the risk of being perceived as lawfare (the use of legal systems to damage a political opponent). "It is going to prove right those who speak of lawfare," some voices warn. The problem is that the judicialization of politics, when perceived as excessive, tends to strengthen the target. The broadcast of a program on La 2 (TVE) regarding the "judicial fachosfera" is a symptom: the Government's propaganda machinery feeds on the opposition's excesses.

Feijóo and Ayuso: a political burden

Another pillar of the analysis is the lack of attractive leadership on the right. Feijóo, despite winning more votes in the elections, fails to capitalize on the Government's wear and tear. Meanwhile, Ayuso, whose style is highly polarizing, generates rejection outside of Madrid. "Outside of Madrid, nobody buys into Ayuso," is a common saying that reflects a structural limitation of the PP. The combination of overconfidence and a lack of fresh faces may be making the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) "unbeatable," as they say in political circles: impossible to oust even if economic management is mediocre.

Demographics: Electoral fraud via the "Ley de Nietos"?

Reference is also made to the "Ley de Nietos" (the Law of Grandchildren), which would allow the regularization of 2.5 million descendants of emigrants, many of whom have the right to vote. The 42% figure cited by Tezanos regarding PSOE voting intention is not accidental. It is argued that the Government is delaying elections so that this law takes effect and guarantees a cushion of votes. If this is true, the right is not denouncing it with sufficient force; on the contrary, their scattered attacks only ensure the debate focuses on judicial matters rather than administrative electoral fraud.

The paradox is clear: the more judicial noise there is, the more the left mobilizes; the more the right relies on victory, the more it slips away. The startling data point: despite all the scandals and the indictment of a former president, PSOE's voting intention does not collapse. Something is failing in the opposition's strategy.