Redondo predicts PSOE will lead polls within two weeks

Iván Redondo argues that the PSOE will be the leading political force within two weeks, a prediction bolstered by his track record of accurately forecasting Pedro Sánchez’s victory in the 2017 socialist primaries. This history gives his claim a weight that other polls lack.

The statement comes from **Iván Redondo**, former chief of staff to Pedro Sánchez, and is not a poll result. It is a dated prediction: **two weeks**. In an electoral cycle where published polls place the PSOE behind the PP in direct voting intention, Redondo’s bet goes against the current trend.

## Why he is listened to

Redondo is not just any commentator. During the PSOE primaries of **2017**, when almost all analysts considered Susana Díaz’s victory certain, he was the only one to anticipate **Pedro Sánchez**’s win. His argument at the time was hidden votes: socialists who did not declare their voting intention for antiestéticar of internal reprisals. That diagnosis proved correct and gave him a credibility that still endures.

## What the prediction actually says

"In two weeks the PSOE will already be the first force." He does not specify which measurement, nor whether he refers to voting intention, seats, or another metric. Nor does he clarify if he speaks of published polls or his own internal reading. The ambiguity is relevant: a prediction without a unit of measure is difficult to verify and easy to reinterpret afterwards.

## Hidden votes as a variable

The thesis Redondo used in 2017 reappears here. Hidden votes are a real phenomenon in electoral sociology: voters who do not declare their choice due to shame, antiestéticar, or distrust of the pollster. Its effect is hard to quantify and is often invoked when surveys fail. That Redondo got it right once does not guarantee he will be right again.

## What can and cannot be verified

The prediction is falsifiable: in two weeks we will know if the PSOE leads or not. Until then, it should be treated as what it is, a hypothesis from an analyst with a documented hit, not as data. Polls are snapshots with a margin of error, and political predictions are neither financial nor electoral advice.